US EIA sees Brent crude prices falling to USD 77 per barrel by Q4 2027 as supply recovers
Washington, November 11
Global crude oil prices could ease to an average of USD 77 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as oil supplies recover and global inventories rebuild, the US Energy Information Administration has projected, while warning that continued disruptions to shipping routes could keep prices volatile.
In its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA expects Brent crude prices to remain around USD 100 per barrel during November and December this year, before falling below USD 90 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027 as production in the Middle East gradually recovers.
"As depleted global oil inventories build throughout next year, we forecast the Brent spot price will gradually fall to an average of $77/b in the fourth quarter of 2027," the EIA said.
The agency added that global oil inventories, which declined by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026, are expected to build by 3.5 million barrels per day in the first half of next year.
It expects most Middle Eastern oil production, excluding Iran, to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027. However, Iranian exports are expected to remain constrained through the forecast period.
The EIA cautioned that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes would remain vulnerable to disruptions, adding that this could result in "more volatility in short-term price movements than our monthly forecast indicates".
The outlook comes after Brent crude averaged USD 124 per barrel in October, its highest level since July 2022, as falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers and limited shipping capacity tightened supplies. Prices subsequently fell below USD 100 per barrel on November 4.
Amid low demand in 2026, oil demand is projected to recover by an average of 2 million barrels per day in 2027, supported by improving oil flows and lower prices that are expected to encourage consumption.
Meanwhile, US crude oil production is forecast to reach a record 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027, up 3 per cent from an estimated 13.9 million barrels per day this year. Higher production and increased net imports are expected to support a recovery in US crude inventories.
The EIA's projections indicate that easing supply constraints could bring down global oil prices next year, although geopolitical and shipping-related risks remain a source of uncertainty.
— ANI
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