US-China calm may prove temporary: Former top-ranking diplomat
Washington, June 4
The United States and China appear to be pursuing a period of stability in their relationship, driven largely by economic considerations, but the fundamental sources of friction between the world's two largest economies remain unchanged, former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Nisha Desai Biswal has said.
In an exclusive interview with IANS, Biswal said Washington's current approach towards Beijing is focused on managing tensions and creating a more predictable relationship, particularly ahead of politically significant events later this year.
"I think the US right now is in a mode where it wants to create a stable relationship with China," Biswal said. "I think that there's strong economic drivers behind that as well."
She said a potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the United States later this year could be shaped by immediate economic priorities rather than broader strategic disagreements.
"A reciprocal visit by President Xi this fall right before midterm elections, I imagine is gonna have a focus on some much more immediate economic issues that they're gonna want to look at in terms of investment, in terms of agricultural trade, et cetera," she said.
However, Biswal cautioned against viewing current diplomatic engagement as evidence of a fundamental shift in relations between Washington and Beijing.
"Again, the fundamentals of US China have not changed," she said.
She suggested that some of the more difficult issues that have defined the bilateral relationship in recent years could re-emerge after the US midterm election cycle.
"I would have to wonder if post midterm you might see some of those tough issues between us and China, kind of resurge as points of friction in the relationship," Biswal said.
While discussing China, Biswal also addressed Beijing's relationship with New Delhi, arguing that both Asian powers have reasons to pursue greater stability despite continuing differences.
"I think it's in India's interest and in China's interest to have stability in that relationship," she said.
According to Biswal, both governments have shown interest in exploring limited opportunities for cooperation and engagement.
"We've heard both sides looking to do that in terms of creating some limited openings on the economic and investment front, you know, the direct air routes and things like that," she said.
At the same time, she cautioned that expectations for a major breakthrough should remain modest.
"Again, there are limits to how far I think the Indians and China are gonna find common ground," Biswal said.
Biswal served as Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs from 2013 to 2017.
US-China relations have been shaped in recent years by disputes over trade, technology, national security, Taiwan and competing visions for the Indo-Pacific. Despite periodic efforts to stabilise ties, both countries continue to view each other as strategic competitors across multiple domains.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Nisha Desai Biswal has deep experience on this. The "economic drivers" angle is key—both economies are too intertwined for a full break, but geopolitical tensions won't vanish after midterms. India should use this window to build its own tech and trade resilience rather than assuming the US will always have our back.
"Fundamentals have not changed"—that's the line that matters most. For us in India, this means we cannot relax our border vigilance, especially in Ladakh. The calm is temporary, and we must keep pushing for self-reliance in defense and manufacturing. No one will hand us stability on a platter. 🇮🇳
A realistic take from a seasoned diplomat. The US-China rivalry will likely resurge post-midterms, and as Biswal hints, India-China ties also have limits. The key for India is to avoid getting caught in the middle—we need our own independent stance while deepening ties with both when practical. Good interview.
Biswal is spot-on about the limits to India-China cooperation. While direct air routes and economic openings are welcome, the core issues like border disputes and Belt and Road ambitions remain. We should engage cautiously, not naively. Temporary calm shouldn't make us drop our guard. Well-argued piece.
The "resurge of tough issues" warning is important. India must prepare for a scenario where US-China tensions spike again, potentially affecting everything from trade routes to tech partnerships. Building self-sufficiency in critical sectors like semiconductors and defense is not optional—it's survival. Good analysis from a veteran.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.