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Indian Markets Eye Trump Tariffs, GDP Data & F&O Expiry Next Week

Indian equity markets rebounded on Friday after sharp losses, with the Sensex closing above 82,800. The coming week's direction will be influenced by global developments, particularly US tariff-related policy moves. Domestically, investors await key GDP data and will navigate the monthly derivatives expiry, which may increase volatility. Foreign portfolio investor activity has shown improvement, with net inflows recorded in February.

Key Points: Market Cues: Trump Tariffs, GDP Data, F&O Expiry Drive D-Street

  • US tariff decisions impact global trade
  • Q4 GDP data release on Feb 27
  • Monthly F&O expiry on Feb 24
  • FPIs turn net buyers in February
  • Nifty finds support at 25,300-25,100
2 min read

Trump tariffs, GDP data and other cues likely to drive D-Street next week

Indian markets to track US tariff moves, domestic GDP data, and monthly F&O expiry. Analysts see volatility with Nifty support at 25,100.

"A decisive break below 25,000 could increase downside momentum and accelerate corrective pressure - Market Analyst"

Mumbai, Feb 22

Investors will closely watch global developments such as tariff-related moves in the United States, along with key domestic data like GDP numbers and the monthly F&O expiry, which are likely to guide market direction in the coming week.

After witnessing sharp losses of over 1 per cent in the previous session, the Indian stock market bounced back strongly on Friday.

The 30-share Sensex climbed 317 points, or 0.38 per cent, to close at 82,814.71. The broader Nifty also ended higher, rising 117 points, or 0.46 per cent, to settle at 25,571.25.

"From a levels perspective, 25,800 stands as the immediate resistance, followed by 26,000 and 26,200," an analyst stated.

"On the downside, key supports are located at 25,300 and 25,100. A decisive break below 25,000 could increase downside momentum and accelerate corrective pressure," the expert mentioned.

In the broader market, performance remained mixed. The BSE 150 MidCap Index gained 0.44 per cent, while the BSE 250 SmallCap Index slipped 0.19 per cent.

Going ahead, global trade developments will remain in focus. Investors are assessing the impact of tariff-related decisions in the United States, especially any legal interpretation or policy change that could influence global trade flows.

Any major development on this front could impact global markets and, in turn, investor sentiment in India.

On the domestic front, attention will shift to key economic indicators. Market participants are awaiting the next quarterly GDP estimates under the new series, which will be released on February 27 by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.

Apart from GDP data, investors will also track government budget numbers, foreign exchange reserves and year-on-year infrastructure output figures for fresh cues about the health of the economy.

Market volatility may also increase due to the monthly derivatives expiry. Analysts expect fluctuations to remain high as traders adjust their positions ahead of the February F&O expiry scheduled for February 24.

Meanwhile, foreign investor activity has shown signs of improvement. According to data from the National Securities Depository Limited, foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers on nine of the last sixteen trading sessions till February 20.

Total FPI investments through exchanges stood at Rs 14,177.66 crore during this period. Additionally, FPIs invested Rs 2,733.89 crore in the primary market, taking the overall investment for February so far to Rs 16,911.55 crore.

With global trade concerns, domestic macroeconomic data and derivatives expiry lined up, analysts believe the Indian market may remain volatile but stock-specific action is likely to continue in the coming week.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
F&O expiry always adds so much volatility! It's tough for retail investors like us to navigate. I'm more focused on the domestic GDP numbers. If the growth is strong, it should provide a solid floor for the market despite global headwinds. 🤞
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Vikram M
Why does our market have to react to every tweet from the US? We should be driven by our own strong fundamentals. Having said that, the article is correct - a break below 25,000 Nifty could trigger a sharper correction. Time to be cautious.
S
Sarah B
Watching from a global perspective, India remains a bright spot. The consistent FPI buying in February is telling. The tariff overhang is a risk, but if domestic data is robust, it could offset some of that negative sentiment. Interesting week ahead.
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Rohit P
Mid and small caps underperforming again. This is a pattern. Money is moving to safety in large caps. With expiry volatility, better to avoid speculative bets in smaller companies next week. Stick to quality.
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Karthik V
The article is comprehensive, but I respectfully disagree on one point. It underplays the risk from the US. A major tariff move can cause a global risk-off event where all emerging markets, including India, get sold off irrespective of local data. We need to be prepared for that scenario too.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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