Trump's Iran War Gamble Could Cost Him His Presidency, Warns Ex-Advisor

Speaking about Trump's strategic choices, Pape, in an exclusive interview with ANI, said the President faces a stark dilemma: either strike a difficult diplomatic deal now at a high political cost, or escalate militarily by attempting to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz.

He cautioned that choosing the military path could trigger a three-to-six month war of attrition, during which political costs would steadily mount. "At that point, President Trump will effectively--not physically, but effectively--lose his presidency," Pape said, explaining that his administration could become politically "unrecoverable."

Pape clarified that this would not mean impeachment, but a gradual erosion of support within Trump's own party. Republican leaders, he said, would begin distancing themselves "one by one" as elections approach, prioritising their own political survival.

He further warned that once ground operations begin, the US could fall into an "escalation trap," where each decision appears rational individually but collectively leads to a prolonged and costly conflict, similar to past wars like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

According to Pape, early signs of escalation are already visible in US military deployments, making a ground war "70% likely." He stressed that once American casualties mount, core supporters may initially harden their stance, prolonging the conflict rather than ending it.

The Political Science Professor of the University of Chicago and a former advisor to the White House said that slowly, all Republicans may distance themselves from Trump if they sense he is losing.

"As President Trump is on the horns of a dilemma, he can cut bait now, cut a deal now, pay that high price, break Israel's elbows, threaten to cut off all the raid, do what I'm just describing here, super high price, but possibly his presidency will be recoverable. Or he can go to the other side, the military, the battlefield side, and then go across stage three and start to use military force to physically open the Strait of Hormuz, physically with military force," he said.

"There, I believe, and this is my assessment, that the political costs will mount over those months, that three to six month attrition war will become even worse. And I believe at that point, President Trump will effectively, not physically, but effectively lose his presidency. That his presidency will become unrecoverable. He will become, not that all the Republicans will dump him, and I'm not saying the Republicans would do like an impeachment. What I'm saying is they will distance themselves, not as a group, but one by one by one," Pape added.

The top political scientist said that then each individual Republican, akin to each of the Gulf Council Cooperation Council country, will take their own decision.

"Each of the individual, just as each of the GCC countries now is making their own individual decision, if we go forward with the ground operation, not on the first week, but say by June, then I think as the midterms come, the Republicans in the House and the Republicans in the Senate are gonna look for lifeboats. And they're gonna decide, are they gonna double down and ride with Trump? Or are they gonna distance themselves and run away from the Titanic and try to survive that way? Either way, they're making their own decision on their own survival," he said.

Pape then said that to avoid such a situation, Trump must make a deal even if it seems bad.

"It's not about whether they like Trump or not anymore. That's going to be, it's whatever they say, this is the reality. And so I think President Trump should be cutting this deal as bad as it is. And I know I've painted it in these awful terms. I think this is his best option. And I've been saying this, but that's not what he's doing. He did, you know, start and open up a, apparently something of a channel here, but he's not putting any of the real things on the table that would get Iran's attention. In fact, I think Iran is taking advantage of Trump on the negotiations, not the other way around," he said.

The strategist further said that Trump is being sucked into a trap and he feels each decision is a rational one, but if one puts them together, the decisions feel bad.

"I mean, politically, it's the political battle, another political battlefield. And I think Iran is winning that game as well. So I think that we have an option, but President Trump is being pulled into the escalation trap, not because he wants ground war. I'm not saying he wants a ground war. He had a hidden plan for a ground war. I'm saying that he's being sucked into it because at each stage, he thinks this is his most rational decision. And that is the trap. The trap is the decision maker thinks it's rational. Even though each of those decisions seem individually rational, when you sum it up as a process, it is disaster," he said.

A political science professor with a specialization in security affairs. Professor Pape has a popular substack named the 'Escalation Trap', which informs the reader when conflicts are changing phases and the various dimensions that happens at each stage.

Among the many books he has authored includes "Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War". He said that for the past two decades, he has been "running simulations on a war with Iran" with his students and has gone through possible targets, attack plans, the bombing of key nuclear facilities such as Natanz, Fordo, Isfahan with his students.

- ANI