Trump's 2026 Trade Agenda Doubles Down on Tariffs, Targets China Deficit

The 2026 agenda argues that "the United States currently runs the largest trade deficit in human history," after offshoring 5 million manufacturing jobs and losing more than 70,000 factories during a period of "hyper-globalisation." It says the trade deficit in goods and services "exploded by 40 per cent from 2020 to the end of the Biden Administration."​

Framing trade as central to economic and national security, the document states: "The United States should produce more of what it consumes." It adds that "production - in manufacturing, agriculture, and their attendant services - makes for an economy that has higher wages, more innovation, and greater national security."​

The administration credits its tariff-heavy approach for early gains. Since April 2025, it says, the goods trade deficit has decreased year over year every month through December. ​

The deficit with China fell 32 per cent in 2025, and "for the first time since 2000, China is no longer the trading partner with which the US has its largest trade deficit."​

Exports also rose sharply. After the launch of the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) program, goods and services exports increased $199.8 billion, or 6.2 per cent, to a record $3.4 trillion, the document says. Exports of capital goods climbed 9.9 per cent in 2025.​

"It's not just rhetoric; the data tell the story. America is back," the agenda states.​

For 2026, the administration outlines six priorities: continuing the ART program, enforcing trade laws, securing critical supply chains, reviewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), managing trade with China, and promoting American interests in international forums.​

Under the ART program, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has signed agreements with Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Taiwan, and announced framework deals with partners including India, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. The agreements require partners to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, while the United States maintains "a modified tariff on the trading partner."​

The agenda says trading partners are eliminating nearly all tariffs on U.S. industrial goods in several cases, including "India (99 per cent for industrial goods)" and the European Union (100 per cent for industrial goods).​

Regarding China, the document acknowledges "no doubt about the costs of more than two decades of unfettered free trade," stating that the U.S. "lost millions of jobs" after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. It says Washington expects "ongoing trade with China" but will seek arrangements "based on reciprocity and balance." The October 2025 deal reached by Trump and President Xi Jinping in Busan is described as "the first step in that direction."​

The agenda also calls for reshoring critical sectors. Citing Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, it says the U.S. will orient "our industrial base to a wartime footing" and negotiate a new Agreement on Trade in Critical Minerals with like-minded partners.​

In North America, the administration will lead a 2026 joint review of USMCA, warning that renewal will be recommended "only if such resolution can be achieved" on outstanding disputes.​

The document concludes that "our present international economic predicament requires changing policies and resisting an instinct to revert to the status quo ante," invoking President Abraham Lincoln's call to "think anew, and act anew." ​

- IANS