India-Australia-Japan Trilateral Must Step Up as US Role Wanes: Report

The India‑Australia‑Japan (IAJ) trilateral should be revitalised as a practical, autonomous mechanism to bolster deterrence in the Indo‑Pacific amid what was described as an erosion of US reliability under the Trump administration, opined a piece published in European media outlet Modern Diplomacy.

It presents the IAJ trilateral as a pragmatic, regionally anchored response where under Donald Trump, "the US appears to be downgrading its security role in the Indo-Pacific region by not confronting Chinese coercion". This development, pointed out the article, is unlike the Cold War era, when Washington was the primary security contributor to its allies worldwide.

The three nations mentioned in the article form the 'Quad' with the US. India was due to host the Quad Summit in 2025 which was postponed amid India-US trade tensions. Also in question is the US President's participation in the Quad with his recently-arrived New Delhi Ambassador Sergio Gor reacting cautiously that it may happen "hopefully in a year or two", underscoring the uncertainty.

The Modern Diplomacy write-up mentioned that the US has also decelerated the cooperation in regional minilaterals, which were formed to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

This decline, the author contended, creates a strategic opening for the IAJ, that excludes the US, to assume a more central role in coordinating regional responses to maritime coercion and other forms of pressure from China.

"Although the IAJ trilateral may fall short in countering China's military capabilities (in the absence of the US), however, deterrence also includes perceptual factors. Therefore, a revitalised IAJ trilateral, representing Indo-Pacific's three most important democracies, can be the foremost tool in countering China's maritime coercion in the Indo-Pacific," the report mentioned.

"Maritime security becomes all the more critical in the light of China's expanding maritime presence in the Indo-Pacific, and the three countries are facing its repercussions in different theatres of competition. For instance, India is facing the growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean Region, while Australia is in the Western Pacific, and Japan is in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Therefore, all three countries can synergise their efforts in countering China in their respective theatres of competition in the Indo-Pacific," it added.

- IANS