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Telecom Sector Set for Growth: ARPU Rise, Tariff Hikes to Boost Q4FY26

India's telecom sector is poised for steady growth in Q4FY26, driven by rising average revenue per user and strong subscriber additions by market leaders. The report from Centrum highlights that Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are expected to gain significant subscribers, while Vodafone Idea is projected to continue losing customers. A favourable pricing environment with an anticipated 12-15% tariff hike by July 2026 further supports the positive outlook. Growth is also expected from newer segments like 5G Fixed Wireless Access and fixed broadband, where penetration remains low.

Key Points: India Telecom Growth: ARPU Rise & Tariff Hikes Drive Q4 Outlook

  • ARPU growth from 2G to 4G/5G migration
  • Jio & Airtel to gain subscribers
  • Vodafone Idea expected to lose customers
  • 12-15% tariff hike likely by July 2026
2 min read

Telecom sector outlook positive; ARPU growth, tariff hikes to drive performance

Centrum report forecasts steady telecom growth via ARPU increases, subscriber gains for Airtel & Jio, and potential tariff hikes by July 2026.

"rising ARPU to drive performance of Telcos - Centrum report"

New Delhi, April 6

India's telecom sector is set for steady growth in Q4FY26, supported by rising average revenue per user, strong subscriber additions by market leaders, and a favourable pricing environment, according to a report by Centrum.

The report highlights that "rising ARPU to drive performance of Telcos," with operators expected to post "~1% QoQ increase in ARPU led by 2G to 4G/5G migration and postpaid addition."

The report noted, market dynamics remain tilted in favour of larger players, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio would continue to gain subscriber market share at the expense of Vodafone Idea.

Reliance Jio is projected to add around 5 million subscribers sequentially, while Bharti Airtel may add about 6.5 million users. In contrast, Vodafone Idea is expected to continue losing customers, with the report noting it may lose 1mn customers QoQ.

Data consumption trends remain robust, with the report stating that data usage per customer would remain robust, led by growing penetration of 4G/5G network, as both Jio and Airtel expand their 5G footprint across over 90 per cent of the districts.

The sector's pricing outlook is also improving. According to the report, the pricing environment has become more favourable with only four players in the market and another round of tariff hikes is likely, with expectations of a "12-15% tariff hike by July'2026."

Additionally, growth opportunities are emerging from newer segments, with telecom majors witnessing "strong traction in terms of 5G FWA and fixed broadband addition," driven by low penetration in these areas.

Among companies, Bharti Airtel is expected to maintain industry-leading ARPU, while Reliance Jio's growth will be supported by 5G FWA expansion. Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea's performance will hinge on fund-raising and capex execution, with "management commentary on their ongoing capex activity and fund raise program... keenly watched."

Overall, the report maintains a positive stance on the sector, stating that the focus on ARPU expansion and improving return ratios will remain key drivers. It adds that "we maintain status quo on all ratings," with preference for Bharti Airtel and Indus Towers among telecom players.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
Good to see the sector growing. As a small business owner, reliable high-speed internet is crucial. Switched to Airtel 5G last year and it's been a game-changer for video conferences and digital payments. Hope the expansion continues to tier 2 cities like ours.
R
Rohit P
The duopoly is concerning. What happens to consumer choice if Vi collapses? We need at least 3 strong players for healthy competition. TRAI should ensure a level playing field.
S
Sarah B
The data on migration from 2G to 4G/5G is fascinating. It shows how rapidly India is digitizing. My parents in a village in Punjab finally upgraded to smartphones last year. Infrastructure reach is key for inclusive growth.
V
Vikram M
Positive outlook is good for investors, but as a customer, I'm wary. Every time there's talk of "favourable pricing environment," it means our bills go up. Hope the 5G FWA services are priced reasonably. Jio's AirFiber looks promising for my home office setup.
K
Kavya N
I'm still a Vi customer. Loyalty shouldn't mean poorer service. The report is right - their survival depends on fundraising. I really don't want to switch, but the network issues are pushing me to. Airtel seems to be the better option now.
M

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