Tarique Rahman's Pakistan Challenge: Can He Balance Dhaka's Ties with Delhi?

With Tarique Rahman poised to become Bangladesh's next Prime Minister, the focus shifts to how he will manage relations with Pakistan, which grew closer under the interim rule of Muhammad Yunus. Indian officials are cautious, hoping Rahman will not allow Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) the same operational freedom it reportedly had previously. Analysts suggest Rahman's "nation-first" policy and public sentiment against a return to pre-1971 dynamics will guide a more pragmatic foreign approach. While expecting normal ties with India, his immediate priority is stabilizing his violence-torn country, with Pakistan likely adopting a wait-and-watch stance.

Key Points: Bangladesh's Tarique Rahman Faces Pakistan Test After Yunus

  • Tarique Rahman to become Bangladesh PM
  • Yunus era saw closer Pakistan ties
  • India wary of ISI influence
  • BNP may show pragmatism
  • 'Nation-first' policy key
4 min read

Tarique Rahman's Pakistan test: Can Dhaka recalibrate after Yunus reset?

As Tarique Rahman prepares to lead Bangladesh, analysts watch if he will reset ties with Pakistan or prioritize relations with India and a 'nation-first' policy.

"not Dilli, not Pindi... Bangladesh first - Abhinav Pandya"

New Delhi, Feb 14

With Tarique Rahman set to take over as the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh, all eyes would be on how he deals with Pakistan.

Since Muhammad Yunus took over as the caretaker of the interim government in Bangladesh, ties between Dhaka and Islamabad have seen a marked improvement.

Yunus has been accused of giving away too much to Bangladesh.

He eased visa norms while also giving Pakistan unhindered access to the Bangladesh seas, which security agencies say could be a potential route for terrorists.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) ruled the country between 2001 and 2007.

Back in the day, the Indian government and BNP shared "blow hot blow cold" ties.

India had often accused the then Bangladesh government of allowing terrorists to use their soil.

However, this time things may be different as the Jamaat-e-Islami is not a BNP ally unlike it was in previous times.

Officials say that one cannot expect the BNP to completely distance itself from Pakistan.

However, Tarique Rahman would also keep in mind the importance of sharing good relations with India.

He will share normal relations with Bangladesh, but is unlikely to allow the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) to make the country their playground, like was the case when Yunus was at the helm, an official added.

Another official said that Pakistan for a few days would adopt a wait and watch game. It would not push too hard and would wait for Tarique Rahman to settle in.

Tarique Rahman's biggest task is to bring some semblance to his violence-torn country and that would be his immediate priority, the official added.

New Delhi, on the other hand, would not mind if Dhaka and Islamabad share good ties.

However, it would be wary if Tarique Rahman follows in the footsteps of Yunus, who gave away too much to Pakistan.

In the last couple of months, several high-profile visits by Pakistan Army and the ISI personnel have taken place.

During these visits, Pakistan sought to establish strong military ties.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that the concern was that these visits were clearly aimed at setting up bases to target India.

Abhinav Pandya, the founder of think-tank 'Usanas Foundation' and a Cornell University graduate in public affairs, says that the BNP has never abandoned its Islamic routes.

"However this time, it is likely to show some pragmatism. During his campaign, he has spoken about his nation-first policy and this is a good sign."

It is clear that he will not let any country meddle with the affairs of Bangladesh, Pandya added.

"His slogan, "not Dilli, not Pindi... Bangladesh first", clearly shows what his intention is and he will not allow Pakistan to meddle too much," he said.

Tarique Rahman had even lashed out at the "pro-Pakistan" Jamaat for siding with Islamabad during the 1971 war, he added.

He accused the Jamaat-e-Islami of trying to cheat people with false assurances.

"This signals a shift and Tarique Rahman is clear that he will follow his nation-first policy. This is a better approach to his foreign policy ties," Pandya said.

Further, Tarique Rahman has managed to capture the mood of the people of Bangladesh.

A majority do not want a pre-1971 like scenario in their country.

They realise that if Pakistan is allowed too much room to operate in Bangladesh then there is every chance of that era returning, Bangladesh watchers say.

After Yunus took charge, the Jamaat called the shots.

With the ISI, the Jamaat had planned on ensuring that the country gets back to the pre-1971 days.

The people were clearly upset about this and realised what they would be signing up for if they voted for the Jamaat.

An official said that the message from the people was clear and that is they do not want Pakistan calling the shots in Bangladesh.

This is something that Tarique Rahman is very well aware of, the official added.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
Yunus era sounds like a security nightmare for the entire region. Giving unhindered sea access? That's just inviting trouble. Rahman seems to understand the public mood which is against returning to pre-1971 dynamics. Hope he stays firm and doesn't allow ISI to set up shop next door. Our agencies must remain vigilant though.
R
Rohit P
The article mentions India won't mind good Dhaka-Islamabad ties, and that's the mature stance. We can't expect Bangladesh to isolate Pakistan. The key is ensuring their cooperation doesn't come at India's cost. Rahman lashing out at Jamaat's pro-Pakistan 1971 stance is a positive signal. Let's give diplomacy a chance.
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Sarah B
Interesting analysis. The "not Dilli, not Pindi" line is powerful. It shows a desire for true non-alignment. However, as a foreign observer, I hope this "nation-first" policy translates to economic growth and stability for the people of Bangladesh, rather than just political posturing. Their immediate priority should be internal peace.
V
Vikram M
With respect, I think the article is a bit too optimistic. BNP's historical ties with Islamic elements and Pakistan are deep. One slogan during a campaign is easy. The real test will be in policy actions. Will he really curb ISI activities if it means upsetting a part of his voter base? Time will tell. We should be cautiously optimistic, not naive.
K
Kavya N
The most important line: "A majority do not want a pre-1971 like scenario." The people of Bangladesh remember their history and the struggle for liberation.

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