Strengthening El Nino weighs on kharif sowing; pulses acreage fall sharply: ICICI Bank Research
Mumbai, June 17
Strengthening El Nino conditions and a delayed southwest monsoon have started weighing on India's kharif crop season, with sowing activity falling below last year's levels, particularly in pulses and oilseeds, according to an ICICI Bank Research report.
The report flagged rising weather-related risks to the agricultural season, saying, "El Nino conditions have gotten stronger recently with relative index crossing threshold level and pointing towards further increase. Notably, IMD had revised its rainfall forecast lower."
According to the report, kharif sowing as of June 12 stood at 8.5 million hectares, down 3.9 per cent from 8.8 million hectares during the corresponding period last year, as deficient rainfall in key farming regions affected planting activity.
"Kharif sowing (12 June 2026) is down by 3.9% YoY led by drop in pulses and oilseeds. However, sowing of paddy and coarse cereals is better placed," the report said.
The sharpest decline has been seen in pulses, where acreage contracted 43.2 per cent year-on-year. The report attributed the fall primarily to lower sowing of arhar, moong and urad. Cotton acreage also declined by nearly 28 per cent compared with the same period last year.
The report said the weak sowing trend comes amid a sluggish start to the monsoon season.
"Monsoon is off to a slow start at 35% below normal led by Central (61% below LPA) and East India (43% below LPA) while Northwest (5% above LPA) and South (14% below LPA) have done better," it said.
The report noted that rainfall distribution has remained uneven across regions, with major agrarian states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Bihar recording deficient rainfall so far this season.
However, the report pointed out that not all crop segments have been affected equally. Rice acreage was up 28.4 per cent year-on-year, while coarse cereals acreage rose 10.4 per cent, helping offset some of the weakness seen in pulses and cotton.
The report also highlighted a key support factor for the farm sector despite the weak start to the monsoon.
"All India reservoirs storage is 28% of capacity, lower than last year's 30% but above long period average of 24% which should mitigate the impact of lower rainfall to some extent," it said.
According to the report, reservoir levels remain higher than the long-term average, which could help reduce stress on agriculture if rainfall improves in the coming weeks.
The report further noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral and is expected to stay so, while rainfall activity is likely to strengthen as the monsoon progresses.
"Indian Ocean Dipole is in neutral territory and is expected to remain so. Overall, monsoon is expected to gain pace in coming days given IMD projected rainfall at 92% of LPA for June," the report added.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Not surprised. Climate change is hitting our agriculture hard. El Nino is becoming more frequent and intense. But I'm glad reservoir levels are still above average - that's some buffer. The real worry is if rains don't improve in July-August, we're looking at major crop failures. Need to invest in drought-resistant seeds and better irrigation.
Interesting that rice and coarse cereals sowing is up despite weak monsoon. Shows farmers are adapting - maybe shifting to less water-intensive crops? But 43% drop in pulses is alarming. As someone from Maharashtra, I've seen how erratic rains affect our farmers. Hope IMD's June forecast of 92% holds true. Fingers crossed 🤞
This is where our agricultural policies need a serious rethink. We're too dependent on monsoon. Why can't we have better water management systems? Look at Israel - they make deserts bloom. Also, farmers need insurance schemes that actually work, not just on paper. Otherwise, every El Nino year becomes a crisis.
As someone who works in agri-tech, I can tell you that early warning systems like this ICICI report are crucial. But we need to move from reports to action. Satellite data, weather forecasting, and AI can help farmers make better decisions. The 28% rise in rice sowing shows some positive adaptation. Let's hope the monsoon catches up!
One thing that bothers me is how we always react after the damage is done. Why can't we have contingency plans ready before El Nino predictions? The reservoir storage being above LPA is good news, but
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