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Southwest Monsoon Likely to Hit Kerala on May 26, Says IMD

The India Meteorological Department announced that the Southwest Monsoon is expected to set in over Kerala on May 26, with a model error margin of ±4 days. Conditions are favorable for further advancement into parts of South Bay of Bengal and Andaman Islands. Meanwhile, heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are likely to continue over Northwest and Central India. The IMD has maintained accurate monsoon onset forecasts since 2005, except for 2015.

Key Points: Monsoon 2025: Kerala Onset Expected May 26 – IMD Update

  • Southwest Monsoon likely to set in over Kerala on May 26
  • IMD uses a statistical model with ±4 days error margin
  • Heatwave conditions to persist over Northwest and Central India
  • IMD forecasts have been largely accurate over the past 21 years
2 min read

Southwest monsoon likely to set in over Kerala on May 26: IMD

IMD forecasts Southwest Monsoon onset over Kerala on May 26, with ±4 days margin. Heatwave alert for Northwest & Central India. Accurate forecasts since 2005.

"The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005. - India Meteorological Department"

New Delhi, May 15

The Southwest Monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on May 26, with a model error margin of +- 4 days, said the India Meteorological Department on Friday.

Conditions are favourable for the further advancement of the Southwest Monsoon into parts of the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 24 hours. Heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are likely to prevail over Northwest and Central India for several days during the week.

The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by its onset over Kerala and is considered an important indicator marking the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, it brings relief from scorching summer temperatures across several regions.

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala around June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005.

The forecast is based on an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of +- 4 days. The model uses six predictors, including minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the south peninsula, outgoing longwave radiation over the South China Sea and southwest Pacific region, and lower tropospheric zonal winds over the southeast Indian Ocean and northeast Indian Ocean.

IMD's forecasts over the past 21 years (2005-2025) have been largely accurate except in 2015. In the most recent six-year period (2020-2025), the forecast performance remained close to actual onset dates, with minor variations between predicted and observed arrivals of the monsoon.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
As a farmer in Tamil Nadu, this forecast gives me hope for a good kharif season. Let's hope the rains are well-distributed and not too heavy. Jammu and Kashmir also needs this relief from the heat.
R
Rahul R
I appreciate the IMD's efforts, but I hope they also focus on localised forecasts for cities like Mumbai and Kolkata where flooding is a big issue every monsoon. The model seems good, but ground-level preparedness matters more.
A
Ananya R
Living in Bangalore, I'm just praying the rains don't cause the usual waterlogging and traffic chaos. The IMD has been decent with predictions lately, but our urban planning needs work. Fingers crossed for a smooth monsoon! ☔
M
Michael C
This is really interesting! I moved from the US to Hyderabad last year, and I'm amazed at how important the monsoon is culturally and economically here. The ±4 day margin seems small relative to the impact. Hope the prediction works out!
S
Siddharth J
It's good that IMD has been accurate for 20 out of 21 years. But let's not forget the 2015 failure—cities like Chennai suffered badly. Monsoon onset is critical, but what about rainfall distribution across the country? Hope they improve that too.
K
Kavya N

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