Assam's Sibsagar Showdown: Akhil Gogoi vs BJP-AGP's Friendly Fight

Incumbent MLA and Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi is looking to retain his stronghold in the historic Ahom capital, but the challenge has taken a complex turn with a "friendly contest" between the ruling NDA allies.

Gogoi is fighting to retain his seat against two NDA alliance candidates: Prodip Hazarika (AGP) and Kushal Dowari (BJP).

Akhil Gogoi is fighting on a platform of regionalism and anti-incumbency, backed by the Congress-led 6-party alliance, while Prodip Hazarika (AGP) is a veteran of the Assam Agitation and 5-time MLA from Amguri and Kushal Dowari (BJP) is a former ULFA member and two-time MLA, fielded as a "friendly" challenger to consolidate the core saffron vote.

The NDA's strategy is to prevent anti-BJP votes from consolidating behind Gogoi, but this risks splitting the pro-government vote. Gogoi, known as a "son of the soil," is relying on his image and vocal criticism of central government policies in the Northeast.

Sibsagar is more than just a seat; it is a prestigious symbol of Assam's political and cultural heritage. Historically the capital of the Ahom Kingdom, the seat is a nerve center for Upper Assam politics.

The electorate is characterised by a significant population of the Ahom community, alongside tea tribe workers and urban middle-class voters. It is known for having a highly politically conscious and educated voter base.

In a historic feat, Akhil Gogoi won the seat in 2021 while incarcerated on sedition charges related to the anti-CAA protests, defeating the BJP's Surabhi Rajkonwar by over 11,000 votes.

Raijor Dal was formed after the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) agitation in Assam, and Akhil Gogoi could produce a decisive result in the last polls, going against both the BJP and Congress, even after being jailed under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).

In the last elections, he won with a margin of 9.60 per cent of the votes, defeating the BJP's Surabhi Rajkonwari. There were signs of the Congress losing control over the seat after the party won by only 0.5 per cent vote-margin in the 2016 elections against Rajkonwari.

The BJP has fielded former MLA Kushal Dowari, who won the Thowra seat in the Sivasagar district in 2016. However, Akhil Gogoi has mounted a scathing attack against Dowari, calling him a "murderer." Dowari's affidavit also reveals an attempt to murder and an Arms Act case pending against him.

"It's a matter of deep disgrace that a person who had murdered 26 people and married 3 women is being considered as the potential candidate of the BJP for 96 Sibsagar LAC. It's really unfortunate that such a person has been considered by the party for a highly respectable constituency where voters are aware and educated," Gogoi wrote on X on March 23.

Meanwhile, Prodip Hazarika, who won the Amguri seat in the Sivasagar district in the 2016 and 2021 polls, will be up against both Akhil Gogoi and ally Kushal Dowari after his constituency was abolished in the 2023 Assam Delimitation.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has termed the entry of a BJP candidate alongside the AGP as a "calibrated electoral call."

By fielding two candidates, the NDA hopes to prevent the anti-BJP vote from consolidating solely behind Gogoi. However, this risks a split in the pro-government vote, which could inadvertently favour the incumbent.

For Raijor Dal, Sibsagar is a must-win to remain a relevant force in Assam's regionalist landscape. For the BJP, a victory here would signal the total eclipse of regionalist dissent in Upper Assam. With the "friendly" twist, the outcome now hinges on whether the Ahom heartland chooses to stick with its firebrand incumbent or leans toward the heavyweights of the ruling coalition.

The polling for all 126 Assembly constituencies will be held in a single phase on April 9, while the counting of votes is scheduled for May 4. Assam is witnessing a contest between the incumbent BJP-led NDA government and the Congress-led alliance for the 126-seat assembly.

- ANI