"Scenario is really bad": Expert Warns of $150 Oil, 10M Barrel Daily Shortage

Speaking with ANI on Thursday, she also shed light on the volatile shift in the global energy market. After a brief period of optimism earlier this week, the outlook for a ceasefire in the West Asian conflict has dimmed, replaced by fears of prolonged supply disruptions and record-high prices.

She said that this shortage is expected to worsen, impacting Asia, home to 58.8% of the world's population. India, being heavily reliant on oil imports, is particularly vulnerable.

Describing the current scenario as "quite bad", she said, "Earlier this week, we got some positive signals from Iran. Until this time, only the US was asking about a ceasefire and all. This time it was from Iran's side, but yes, unfortunately, the ceasefire is not going to happen very soon. We got a very strong statement from Trump that they will hit harder in 2-3 weeks."

The situation has escalated following a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump, which dashed hopes for a quick resolution. Brent crude has climbed back above $107-$108 per barrel, while WTI is trading over $105. In March alone, prices saw a record 60% gain due to the conflict.

Trump's vow to hit Iran "extremely hard in the next 2-3 weeks" has injected a significant "war premium" back into the market. Analysts noted this as a "psychological turning point" that moved the market from de-escalation hopes to pricing in further infrastructure damage.

"Already, we are missing 10 million barrels of crude oil per day, and the number of missing crude oil barrels from the global market is going to increase. Asia, which is home to 58.8% of the people in the globe, is getting hurt by these supply disruptions. The scenario is really bad," she added.

According to Bharti, crude oil prices could rise to USD 150 per barrel in an extreme scenario if the ongoing geopolitical tensions persist, potentially prompting global intervention.

"After USD 130, USD 150, I think many political alliances will come forward, and they will stop it... USD 150 is itself a very alarming situation, and many things are happening... otherwise, it will be mayhem," said Bharti.

She said market positioning based on New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) option data shows a significant build-up near the USD 120-150 levels, with some participants discussing the possibility of prices rising further if the conflict persists

"Market is talking about USD 150... but USD 150 is something like an extreme volatile situation would be there," she said.

When asked about the possibility of crude oil touching USD 200 per barrel because of the war in the Gulf countries, Bharti said she did not endorse that view as a base case and instead pointed to likely intervention before such levels are reached.

Bharti said rising crude prices would begin to trigger policy responses even before extreme levels are reached.

"USD 120, USD 130 will give pressure to Trump to go for a ceasefire," she said, adding that higher prices would intensify economic stress globally.

While alternatives such as renewable energy and coal gasification are being explored, she said they are not immediate solutions. "Renewable, it will take time... it will take decades," she said, adding that coal has often acted as a "saviour" during energy crises.

Bharti said that although some countries, including India, continue to receive shipments, delays and payment challenges persist. She warned that if the crisis extends beyond April or May, the economic impact could intensify significantly, particularly with rising summer energy demand.

"If it prolongs... then it will create a real havoc for the Indian economy as well," she said.

Growth slowed to a four-year low in March due to rising costs and uncertainty. Inflation is expected to breach the 4% target in the June quarter, with potential increases in petrol and diesel prices.

Rupee depreciation adds to the economic strain. Experts suggest India should accelerate its transition to renewables and strengthen strategic partnerships to mitigate these effects.

- ANI