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Rupee Slides Near 92: Capital Outflows, Budget & US Tariffs in Focus

The Indian Rupee continues to weaken against the US Dollar, trading near 91.94 and approaching the 92 level. Currency experts attribute the persistent decline primarily to heavy foreign institutional investor (FII) selling in equity markets. Key immediate triggers for the currency's direction include the upcoming Union Budget and potential news on US tariff decisions. The Reserve Bank of India is reported to be conducting mild interventions to manage volatility.

Key Points: Rupee Fall Driven by Capital Outflows, Experts Eye Budget & Tariffs

  • Rupee nears 92/USD
  • FII selling of ~$4.75B a key driver
  • Union Budget a major trigger
  • US tariff decisions crucial for direction
  • RBI intervention reported
3 min read

Rupee fall is because of capital outflows, budget and US tariff will be key triggers ahead: Experts

Rupee nears 92 vs USD. Experts cite FII selling as main cause, with Union Budget and US tariff decisions as key upcoming triggers for the currency.

"Capital outflows remain the main 'villain' for the fall of the Rupee - K N Dey"

By Nikhil Dedha, New Delhi, January 30

The continued fall of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar is mainly driven by persistent capital outflows, with upcoming developments such as the Union Budget and news related to US tariffs emerging as key factors to watch, currency experts said as the Rupee slipped close to the 92 level.

Reacting to the recent movement in the domestic expert, told ANI that the Rupee opened on Friday morning at 91.91/92 and continued to trade around the same levels. The Rupee had briefly touched 92.00 a day earlier but recovered following reports of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

K N Dey, a currency expert, told ANI "This Month Itself Dollar Index fell by 2.3 per cent wherein the Rupee went reverse, weakened by 1.7 per cent. approx. Absolutely no co-relation with Dollar Index. Again this month till date FII's have sold Net Rs. 43,500 crores in the Equity market which is roughly 4.75 billion dollars. Early this week signing of the Mother of all Trade Deal didn't bring any relief to our Rupee. In case there is any reversal of U.S tariff, the Rupee might correct a bit, may be towards 90.30/50 levels".

"RBI's mild intervention still continues today as reported," Dey said, adding that the Rupee's movement this month has been unusual when compared with the Dollar Index.

On the outlook, Dey said that the Finance Secretary has once again stated this week that India is in the final stage of tariff discussions. "Any reversal or downsizing of the tariff would initially give strength to our Rupee from the present levels," he said.

He further stressed that apart from geopolitical issues, capital outflows remain the main "villain" for the fall of the Rupee and need to be corrected at the earliest. Along with tariff-related developments, Dey said all eyes would also be on the Union Budget scheduled for Sunday, 1st February.

Sharing a similar view, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Rupee trading flat to weak near 91.94, down 0.12, as markets remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget on 1st February 2026.

He said "The currency has been under pressure due to elevated bullion prices increasing the import bill, along with continued FII selling in domestic equities. Participants will closely watch fiscal measures and any steps to stabilize external balances".

Trivedi added from a technical perspective, the Rupee has immediate support near 91.55, while 92.25 remains a key resistance level, with a breakout on either side likely to trigger fresh directional momentum.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
Experts always have reasons, but the volatility is nerve-wracking for small businesses like mine that deal with imported materials. Hope the budget has some relief for MSMEs and focuses on making 'Make in India' stronger to reduce import dependence.
K
Karthik V
The article clearly points to external factors, but we must also look inward. Our trade deficit is a perennial issue. While US tariffs are a trigger, we need long-term structural reforms to build a resilient economy, not just RBI interventions.
A
Aman W
FIIs selling ₹43,500 crores is a huge number! It shows a lack of faith. The budget needs to send a strong signal that India is open for business and policy stability is guaranteed. Otherwise, this capital flight will continue. 🇮🇳
S
Sarah B
Watching from a global perspective, many emerging market currencies are under pressure. India's fundamentals are relatively strong, but the market sentiment is cautious. A prudent budget that balances growth and fiscal discipline could be the turning point.
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Nikhil C
The mention of gold imports adding pressure is spot on. We need to culturally rethink this obsession with physical gold. It drains forex. Maybe the budget can promote digital gold or other investment avenues more aggressively.

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