Pakistan's China-Saudi Dilemma: A Strategic Catch-22 in Iran Conflict

Writing for US-based 'Global Strat View', Senge Sering, founder of the Washington-based Gilgit Baltistan Studies, said that Pakistan is facing heightened strategic challenges amid its growing involvement in the Iran-Arab conflict.

"China, Pakistan's closest strategic and economic partner, is vehemently opposed to regime change in Iran. The Iranian parties supporting regime change will most likely assist the United States in limiting China's influence in the Middle East. Under such conditions, China wants Pakistan to refrain from participating in any military campaign against the Islamic regime," Sering stated.

"Transitioning to Pakistan's relationship with Saudi Arabia, the dynamics become more complex. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan's second-most important ally, regards the Iranian government as an existential threat to the Gulf States and seeks its immediate dissolution. Saudi Arabia pressures Pakistan to stand with it against Iran, particularly given the existence of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement between the two nations," he added.

According to the expert, Riyadh invoked the bilateral defence agreement with Pakistan following Iranian missiles and drones attacks on the Kingdom, with some Saudi analysts viewing the accord as offering a nuclear umbrella against common threats.

Despite its stated commitment to safeguarding Saudi security, Sering said, Pakistan has refrained from direct, offensive military action against Iran due to pressure from China, internal sectarian tensions, and border conflicts.

"Pakistan finds itself in a classic catch-22, as it relies heavily on both China and Saudi Arabia for its economic and geopolitical survival. Some observers, however, believe Pakistan's current role as a peacemaker is a ruse to stave off Iran's military and diplomatic manoeuvres while trying to advance Saudi objectives," he mentioned.

Sering noted that domestically, the residents of Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan are opposed to Pakistan's involvement in the conflict with Iran.

Highlighting the four key aspects of the PoGB, he said, "First and foremost, it is predominantly Shia. Second, it borders China and serves as the only land bridge between the two allied nations. Third, the majority of locals demand independence from Pakistan. Fourth, Gilgit Baltistan is a constitutional part of India, and a UN Security Council resolution has called on Pakistan to withdraw from it. That means neither China nor Pakistan owns the only land bridge they rely on for economic and strategic superiority in Asia."

Expressing concern, Sering further said that the incidents of torture, incarceration, and killing of PoGB residents, including children, by Pakistani authorities have risen threefold since the onset of the conflict, particularly targeting those involved in pro-Iran demonstrations.

"With no letup in state-led brutality, the local families are coming forward and filing police cases against the Pakistani military for the murders of their loved ones. Last week, the police department sacked dozens of its personnel for suspected passivity against pro-Iran demonstrators. However, locals in Skardu believe that the officers were discharged because of their Shia faith," he mentioned.

- IANS