Jio Extends Lead Over Airtel for 9th Month as Broadband Dominance Grows

The sector saw a moderate recovery in wireless net additions to 2.0 million from 1.4 million on a month-on-month basis, even as the total active subscriber base declined. Almost all major brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and Kotak Institutional Equities, presented that Jio was the only private operator to report a net gain in active subscribers during this period.

Reliance Jio added 1.4 million total wireless subscribers and 1.2 million active Visitor Location Register (VLR) subscribers in November. Jefferies noted that "Jio gained 1.2m subs, extending its lead over Bharti for 9 straight months" and "notably, Jio has outperformed Bharti in active subs net adds for the ninth consecutive month".

While Bharti Airtel added 1.2 million total wireless subscribers, its active subscriber base declined by 1.7 million. "Over the past year, Jio's active subs market share rose 160bps to 44%, led by gains across all service areas (+100/130/190/150bps in Metros/A/ B/C-Circles). Bharti's market share edged down ~10bps to 36%, as losses in C-Circles (-70bps) were partly offset by gains in Metros (+60bps), where Bharti's market share is near record highs at 34%. VIL's share fell 120bps to 15%, led by declines in Metros, A and B-Circles," said Jefferies.

In the telecom sector, Circle A, Circle B, and Circle C are classifications for the country's 22 licensed service areas (LSAs) based on their revenue potential and market characteristics.

Consequently, the active market share gap between the two leading players narrowed, with Kotak Institutional Equities observing that the "Continued losses in Vi subscriber base were more than offset by subscriber additions by R-Jio and Bharti. However, active market share (VLR) of R-Jio of 98.2% continues to catch up with Bharti (98.8%), with the gap at an all-time low".

The industry's active subscriber base fell by 3.4 million to 1,091 million, a trend largely driven by losses at Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea (VIL). VIL reported its steepest active subscriber drop in 14 months, losing 2.2 million users.

Morgan Stanley reported that "RJio's net adds driven by urban areas (+1mn of +1.4mn) and Airtel's led by rural (+0.8 of 1.2mn)". Despite the dip in active users, the sector's 4G and 5G subscriber base expanded by 2.7 million, with Jio and Bharti Airtel leading these gains with 1.7 million and 1.3 million additions respectively.

Mobile Number Portability (MNP) requests remained elevated at approximately 14.7 million to 15 million, reflecting persistent user churn across the industry.

In the broadband segment, Reliance Jio maintained a dominant position, particularly through Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) technology. The brokerage reports highlight that Jio gained approximately 0.8 million broadband subscribers, with a large majority attributed to FWA.

Morgan Stanley stated, "For wireline data subs (inc FWA 5G+FWA UBR), we believe RJio's mkt share came in at 41.6% (+53bps) driven by the growth in FWA vs Bharti Airtel at 21.8%". Jio and Bharti Airtel each added 0.25 million 5G FWA subscribers, while Jio added an additional 0.35 million through its Unlicensed Band Radio (UBR) service.

"Rising data penetration and Jio's sustained outperformance vs Bharti in active subs additions support a constructive sector tariff outlook," Jefferies noted.

- ANI