RBI measures may attract $55-65 billion inflows, turn BoP surplus in FY27: SBI Report
New Delhi, June 9
The Reserve Bank of India's recent measures to attract foreign capital are expected to bring in $55-65 billion in inflows during the current fiscal year, helping stabilise the rupee and pushing the country's balance of payments into surplus, according to a report by the State Bank of India.
The SBI Economic Research Department's latest Ecowrap report said the RBI's initiatives announced in February and June 2026 represent a coordinated strategy to strengthen the rupee, deepen India's domestic debt market, attract stable foreign capital and ease access to external funding.
Following the June monetary policy announcement, the central bank unveiled several measures aimed at boosting foreign currency inflows.
These include a concessional forex swap facility to encourage external commercial borrowings (ECBs) by public sector undertakings, as well as a similar facility for banks raising fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR(B) deposits with maturities ranging from three to five years.
According to the report, the February measures focused on structural reforms and market development, while the June initiatives were specifically designed to attract foreign currency inflows and support the rupee without increasing domestic interest rates.
SBI estimates that the expected inflows of $55-65 billion could significantly improve liquidity conditions in the banking system.
Deposit growth in FY27 could rise to 14.5-15 per cent, compared to an anticipated credit growth of around 16 per cent.
The report noted that the gap between credit and deposit growth, after adjusting for regulatory provisions, could narrow by nearly Rs 1 lakh crore. This, in turn, is likely to support a further decline in the term structure of interest rates.
Drawing a comparison with FY14, the report highlighted that deposit and credit growth were almost identical during the period when FCNR(B) fund mobilisation had taken place.
SBI has also revised its outlook for India's external sector. It now expects the country's overall balance of payments to record a surplus of $5-10 billion in FY27, a significant improvement from its earlier estimate of a deficit of $65-70 billion.
The report projects India's current account deficit to remain in the range of 1.5-1.7 per cent of GDP during the fiscal year.
The balance of payments is a comprehensive record of all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world.
— IANS
Reader Comments
RBI doing a solid job with these coordinated measures. The FCNR(B) deposit facility and forex swap are smart moves to bring foreign capital without raising rates at home. Now if only credit growth and deposit growth could match better, but 16% credit vs 14.5-15% deposit is manageable. 👌
Turning a BoP deficit of $65-70 billion into a surplus of $5-10 billion is no small feat. Kudos to SBI Research for their analysis. But I'm cautious—external factors like global interest rates and geopolitical risks could still derail these projections. Let's see how FY27 actually plays out.
Good to see Indian policymakers proactively managing the external sector. The concessional swap for PSUs is a nice touch—helps government entities borrow cheaper. But please, let's also focus on boosting exports to reduce CAD naturally rather than relying too much on capital inflows. Balance is key!
The comparison with FY14 is interesting—back then FCNR(B) mobilisation helped stabilise the rupee during taper tantrum. History seems to be repeating but with better planning. If deposit growth really hits 15%, that could lower interest rates further. Home loan borrowers like me will be happy! 😊
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