RBI Expected to Hold Rates, Focus on Inflation and Growth in April Policy

There would, however, be several policy decisions that will be announced, addressing key macro issues, they said.

Speaking exclusively to ANI, Dipti Deshpande, Principal Economist at Crisil, said the apex bank is primarily going to pursue a 'wait and watch' kind of approach. "It's also going to be cautious," she said.

On the issue of policy announcements, she added, "It will be dependent on what the inflammatory kind of pressures in their forecast, the comfort of 2.6 per cent."

Deshpande maintained the RBI's GDP projections will be about 7 per cent, for Q1 and Q2, adding the number will be different from February.

She said,"Credit growth is expected to see slight modifications and will see a couple of basis points lower growth in 2027 and 2028."

Not only this, but she also expressed her concerns on FDI inflows, stating, "There is very little (space) that can be done to attract FDI."

Speaking in a similar vein, Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings, said, "We expect RBI to maintain 'status quo' on the policy rates and stance in its upcoming meeting in April. Given the volatile nature of the global environment, we expect the RBI to adopt a 'wait and watch' strategy, which will enable RBI to preserve flexibility to gauge emerging risks to growth and take a calibrated call on the future rate reactions."

She added, "The RBI would acknowledge that the uncertainties around its projections are likely to increase. The central bank may consider providing scenario-based projections for growth."

Among others, Rajani Sinha noted that the RBI is likely to recognise the Iran-US conflict and supply-side shocks, with the most inflammatory pressure driven by disruptions in supply. She maintained that RBI may shift to an accommodative stance if downside risks to growth become more pronounced in the coming months.

On the issue of INR and GDP estimates, Rajani Sinha said, "Elevated energy prices could have significant implications for India's macroeconomic fundamentals, affecting growth, inflation, external balances and the fiscal position."

She added, "As per our baseline scenario for FY27, if the global crude oil prices average at USD 90/bbl for the full year, we estimate India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 per cent (from 7.2 per cent estimated previously)."

"On rupee, the RBI has already imposed a cap on banks' Net Open Positions in the forex market, limiting them to USD 100 million each working day. The unwinding of positions by banks due to this cap is expected to provide support to the rupee. This could attract dollar inflows into India, thereby supporting the rupee. Also, the RBI could include introducing dedicated forex swap facilities for major importers, such as oil marketing companies."

She concluded by saying that RBI will continue OMO purchases to keep liquidity conditions comfortable, supporting credit growth.

Another Chief Economist from Muthoot FinCorp, Apoorva Javadekar said, "We believe that the RBI is likely to hold the repo rate constant at 5.25 per cent, motivated by the need to support potential slowing down of the GDP growth due to external headwinds. Further, given that India is starting out the oil price shock with low inflation (3.21 per cent in February 26) afford the RBI the room to wait-and-see."

Former State Bank of India Chairman, Dinesh Kharap on Monday had said that RBI would hold repo rate steady.

The RBI is set to announce the outcome of its first MPC meeting for FY 26-27 on Wednesday, April 8. The current repo rate stands at 5.25 per cent. It was last changed in December 2025, when the central bank had cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent.

- ANI