Qatar Warns Oil Could Hit $150 in Weeks if Iran War Continues

Qatar's Energy Minister has issued a stark warning that continued conflict in the Middle East could force all Gulf exporters to declare force majeure within days, halting energy deliveries. He stated crude oil could reach $150 a barrel and natural gas could jump to $40 per MMBtu within two to three weeks if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The warning follows Qatar's own force majeure declaration after an Iranian drone strike hit its largest LNG facility. Logistical disruptions mean restoring normal export operations could take weeks to months, even if attacks stop immediately.

Key Points: Oil Price Warning: $150 a Barrel if Gulf War Continues

  • Oil could hit $150/barrel in weeks
  • LNG prices could quadruple to $40/MMBtu
  • Gulf exporters may declare force majeure
  • Strait of Hormuz disruptions critical
2 min read

Qatar Energy Minister warns oil could touch $150 in weeks if Iran war continues

Qatar's Energy Minister warns oil could surge to $150 and gas to $40 if Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf exports via Strait of Hormuz.

"Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. - Saad al-Kaabi"

New Delhi, March 6

Qatar's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi has warned that war in the Middle East continuing for a "few days" could cause Gulf exporters declaring force majeure, halting deliveries, pushing oil to $150 a barrel and natural gas to $40 per MMBtu within weeks.

"Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure," the minister told the Financial Times.

"If they don't, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that's their choice," he was quoted as saying by the daily.

The minister said that crude prices could reach $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and other vessels remain unable to pass through the Strait, while natural gas prices could jump four times.

Brent crude futures have surged 20 per cent this week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has jumped 25 per cent. On Friday, Brent was trading over 3 per cent higher at $89 per barrel while WTI rose over 5 per cent to $86. Both benchmarks are trading at their highest levels since April 2024.

Qatar, the world's second-largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), declared force majeure this week after an Iranian drone strike hit its Ras Laffan LNG facility. The facility is the country's largest LNG plant, and efforts are being taken to assess the extent of the damage to it.

Even if attacks stopped immediately, restoring normal export operations could take "weeks to months" due to logistical disruptions, the minister noted. Only six or seven of Qatar's 128 LNG carriers were currently available to load cargo, he said.

With at least 10 ships reportedly struck and insurers sharply raising premiums, shipping companies have become reluctant to send vessels through the region, the Financial Times said.

Oil prices surged as Iran launched missiles and drones across the Gulf, striking an oil refinery in Bahrain.

A recent report from DBS Bank warned that despite the Iranian Navy's warships posing minimal threat, the Islamic Republic's ability to deploy mines and asymmetric attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could slow shipments, raise insurance, shipping costs and energy prices.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

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Priya S
It's a global problem, but we feel it more directly. Our daily commute costs, LPG cylinder prices, everything is linked. Hope diplomatic efforts can de-escalate the situation quickly. No one wins in a war.
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Aditya G
Time to seriously fast-track our renewable energy goals. We are too dependent on imported oil. Solar, wind, nuclear – we need to push all fronts. This crisis is a wake-up call for energy security.
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Sarah B
Working in logistics, I see the ripple effect already. Freight costs are up. If LNG prices jump 4x, it will hit manufacturing and power generation hard. The supply chain disruptions could last months even if fighting stops.
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Karthik V
Respectfully, while the government talks about managing prices, the reality is different. The oil marketing companies have not passed on the full benefit of lower prices when they existed. Now with this spike, the burden will be entirely on citizens. More transparency is needed.
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Meera T
The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for global energy. 20% of the world's oil passes through it. This shows why India's foreign policy of maintaining good relations with all Gulf nations is so crucial. We need to be a voice for peace.

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