Philippines' ASEAN Chairmanship Tested by South China Sea Tensions

"As the Philippines settles into its 2026 ASEAN Chair role, the stalled peace process in Myanmar, persistent tensions in the South China Sea, and renewed frictions along the Cambodia-Thailand border are set to test Manila's steady hands at the centre of some of the region's most volatile geopolitical fault lines," a report in leading Malaysian News Agency Bernama detailed.

"The maritime domain is widely seen as the earliest test of credibility, given the Philippines' dual role as ASEAN Chair and a claimant state in the South China Sea - a position that demands both diplomatic restraint and regional leadership," it added.

Citing analysts, the report noted that the chairmanship is likely to be shaped less by new initiatives and more by Manila's ability to manage crisis and expectations while navigating competing pressures and safeguarding ASEAN unity and centrality.

Siti Darwinda Mohamed Pero, Deputy Dean (Research and Innovation) at Universiti Utara Malaysia's School of International Studies, said the situation could place Manila in a delicate balancing position amid changing major-power dynamics.

"This raises questions about impartiality and consensus-building, particularly in light of its increasingly visible security engagement with the United States. A key test will therefore be the extent to which the Philippines can sustain open communication with China while persuading Beijing to expedite negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC) amid intensified US-China strategic rivalry in the region," Bernama quoted Siti Darwinda as saying.

She further said that although progress on the long-delayed COC is likely to remain incremental, "maintaining dialogue and preventing escalation" would be vital to preserving ASEAN's convening role.

According to the report, beyond the maritime sphere, tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border constitute a different kind of diplomatic test, which the analysts say requires consistent "preventive engagement rather than high-profile intervention".

"While Manila maintains relatively strong relations with Bangkok, its engagement with Phnom Penh is more recent, with high-level reciprocal visits only beginning in 2025. This highlights both the opportunities and the constraints it faces in navigating a volatile bilateral issue while maintaining ASEAN cohesion," Siti Darwinda added.

The report cited analysts highlighting the significance of institutional continuity, particularly through the ASEAN Troika framework--comprising the past, current, and incoming chairs-to help Manila sustain momentum in ongoing regional efforts and ensure policy execution beyond a single chairmanship term.

- IANS