'Pakistan's economic decay is its biggest national security threat'
New Delhi, July 1
Pakistan's slow growth is more than an economic challenge - it is the country's foremost national security threat, and no amount of military strength, diplomacy, or managed stability can rescue a nation that is sliding deeper into poverty while its population keeps growing, according to an article in the Pakistani media.
The security establishment's greatest adversary is not India, Afghanistan, or terrorism, but Pakistan's own slow economic decay. This is not about GDP; it is about the future, which increasingly appears precarious, the article in the Lahore-published Friday Times contended.
It highlights that Pakistan under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has posted its weakest growth in six decades at 2.33 per cent annually, barely matching population growth. Pakistanis are poorer than in 2022 as millions have slipped into poverty while technocrats quibble over whether the figure is 29 per cent or 40 per cent, as though statistical debate can obscure decline, it added.
The article lamented that the establishment watches this slow-motion crisis with little urgency, which appears to be its greatest strategic miscalculation. Pakistan's median age is around 20, and the official NEET rate -- youth aged 15-24 not in employment, education, or training -- stands at 32-33 per cent nationally. A state cannot preserve strategic strength while its economic foundations erode, it stressed.
There is another compelling reason to prioritise economic development: the changing character of war. The US-Iran confrontation and the brief India-Pakistan escalation in May 2025 both signal a structural shift in warfare. Military power is moving from traditional platforms to networked systems built on algorithms, autonomous platforms, and precision strikes. Pakistan's military remains largely configured for the industrial wars of the twentieth century. Adapting demands a costly overhaul of the defence ecosystem -- conceivably around 2 per cent of GDP -- built on technological capability and intellectual capital, the article pointed out.
From 2022 to 2026, Pakistan's real per capita growth was flat or slightly negative ((-) 0.2 per cent). The government has no growth strategy -- only a stabilisation narrative borrowed from the IMF and presented as achievement. While it claims foreign policy successes, these were initiated and led by Field Marshal Asim Munir, as widely recognised internationally. The civilian government is a stranger in its own administration, while the real decisions are made by mandarins in Islamabad and (Rawal)Pindi, the article added.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Excellent analysis from the Friday Times. This resonates with the ground reality I've heard from Pakistani relatives. The youth bulge without jobs is a ticking time bomb. India faces similar issues with NEET rates but at least we have a growing startup ecosystem. They need to focus on education and manufacturing, not just military spending.
As someone who works in finance, this is a textbook case of how macroeconomic mismanagement can destabilize a nation. Pakistan's flat per capita growth for years is alarming. The IMF stabilisation without a growth strategy is just kicking the can down the road. India learned this lesson in the 1990s – you need real reforms.
भारत को अपनी गलतियों से सीखना चाहिए और पाकिस्तान की मदद करनी चाहिए? नहीं, लेकिन यह एक सबक है कि कैसे आर्थिक नीतियां और राजनीतिक अस्थिरता देश को बर्बाद कर सकती हैं। मुझे उम्मीद है कि पाकिस्तान के लोग जल्द ही एक बेहतर भविष्य का रास्ता खोज लेंगे। 🇮🇳
The military-industrial complex is a dinosaur in the age of AI and drones. Pakistan spending 2% of GDP to modernize while people go hungry? That's a tough sell. The comment about civilian government being a 'stranger in its own administration' is spot on. Real power lies with the army chief, not the PM.
R Rohan X