Pakistan Plots Afghan Regime Change Amid Taliban Rift, China's CPEC Pressure

The Taliban that rules Afghanistan is in no mood to mend ties with Pakistan. There have been several tense exchanges between the two countries. Even a temporary ceasefire is not holding up, which has prompted Pakistan to carry out a major regime change operation in Afghanistan.

Pakistan understands that it cannot get the people of Afghanistan on board to execute its plan. The Afghan Taliban is well capable of handling protests, and Islamabad does realise that. Officials say that Pakistan will continue to battle directly against the Afghan Taliban forces to push them out of power.

However, for Pakistan to focus just on the Taliban will be a huge task, considering the numerous problems it is facing back at home. The biggest threats that Pakistan faces are from the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). To counter the two, Pakistan has roped in the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). The ISKP has allied with the Lashkar-e-Taiba and is expected to focus on regions such as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

These regions have a solid presence of the BLA and TTP. Pakistan's idea is to ensure that the ISKP and Lashkar-e-Taiba fight together against the BLA and TTP. It does not want to enhance its troop presence in these regions to focus mainly on the Afghan Taliban. Despite numerous efforts, the Afghan Taliban has refused to come on board with Pakistan.

Islamabad had hoped that it would play the big brother in Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover. While relations initially appeared to be fine, over the years, there has been growing mistrust. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering the TTP. It has also accused the Taliban without proof of allowing Afghanistan to be used as a launchpad against Pakistan.

In April 2024, the Afghan officials detained several Tajik nationals hired by the ISKP. During their questioning, they admitted that they were instructed to travel to Quetta, Pakistan, for training. They also confessed that post the training period, they were to be deployed to Afghanistan.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that the ISI has been training nearly 1,000 people to carry out their regime change mission. The idea is to train as many ISKP cadres as possible, so that they could battle the Taliban in Afghanistan, the official also added.

The Afghanistan situation is a matter of concern for Islamabad. The Afghan Taliban has proven to be anything but weak and has inflicted a lot of damage on the Pakistan army. Further, within terror circles in Pakistan, the ISI is being questioned about its failing ties with the Taliban. The fact that the Taliban currently shares good ties with India has also not gone down too well with Pakistan.

During a recent meeting, the Chinese have told Pakistani officials that ties with the Taliban have to be mended. China insisted that Afghanistan be part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project 2.0 (CPEC). Beijing also conveyed to Pakistan that it has to mend ties with the Taliban so that the project does not face any hiccups. This has put immense pressure on Pakistan to mend ways with the Taliban.

The problem, however, is that there is too much mistrust between the two sides, an official said. This is one of the main reasons why peace talks between the two are failing, despite a third-party mediation. Another official said that Pakistan is running out of patience, and with the dragon breathing down its neck, it is going all out to effect regime change in Afghanistan.

A regime change would prove to be very beneficial for Pakistan. If it manages to topple the Taliban, it could install a puppet, like in the case of Bangladesh. Further, it could work with China on the CPEC, with Afghanistan being a party. Lastly, a puppet regime like in the case of Bangladesh would be anti-India, and this would be very beneficial for Pakistan, officials add.

- IANS