OPEC's global crude output share could fall from 35% to 31% without UAE: EIA
New Delhi, June 24
The United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC has reduced the group's share in global crude oil production and production capacity, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
According to the report, OPEC, including the UAE, produced an estimated 28.0 million b/d of crude oil in 2025, accounting for 35 per cent of total global crude oil production. Without the UAE, OPEC's share of world crude oil production would have been 31 per cent.
It stated, "Without the UAE's contribution, the group's share of world total crude oil production would have been 31 per cent in 2025".
The report further stated that the broader OPEC+ group accounted for about 46 per cent of global crude oil production in 2025. Excluding the UAE, OPEC+'s share would have been closer to 42 per cent.
Saudi Arabia remained the largest and most influential member of OPEC. The country was the world's second-largest oil producer in 2025, producing 9.3 million b/d and holding an estimated production capacity of 11.6 million b/d.
The UAE announced its decision to leave OPEC on April 28, 2026, with effect from May 1. OPEC was formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to coordinate petroleum policies among member countries and remains one of the most influential groups in the global oil market.
The UAE joined OPEC as the emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and, as of 2025, held the third-largest crude oil production capacity within the group after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The country produced an average of 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and had an estimated effective production capacity of 4.2 million b/d in 2025.
The report also highlighted the impact of the conflict in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has significantly disrupted oil production and exports across the region.
According to EIA estimates, crude oil production disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure could rise from 8.89 million b/d in March 2026 to 10.52 million b/d in April and 11.25 million b/d in May.
Iraq is estimated to face production shut-ins of 3.19 million b/d in May 2026, while Saudi Arabia could see disruptions of 3.29 million b/d. Kuwait may witness shut-ins of 1.98 million b/d and the UAE 1.35 million b/d during the same period.
The report noted that the UAE and Saudi Arabia were the only regional OPEC countries able to reroute crude oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz following the disruption.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Interesting how Saudi Arabia still dominates with 9.3 million b/d. But the Strait of Hormuz closure is terrifying - 11 million b/d disruptions by May? That's going to send shockwaves through global markets. India needs to fast-track renewable energy investment. This is a wake-up call.
The geopolitics here is wild. UAE leaves OPEC, Iran conflict escalates, Hormuz gets blocked... and we're stuck paying more at the pump. Our government's strategic petroleum reserve needs to be massive. Otherwise, common man will suffer. Kya ukhaad liya OPEC ne? 🤷♂️
As an energy analyst, I'm watching this closely. OPEC's share dropping from 35% to 31% might sound small, but with Hormuz disruptions, the real impact could be massive. The rerouting capacity of UAE and Saudi Arabia is crucial, but it won't compensate fully. Brace for volatility.
Jab tak hamare oil import bill barh raha hai, tab tak OPEC ki chinta karein? But seriously, this is serious. Iraq and Saudi Arabia facing 3+ million b/d shut-ins each? That's catastrophic. India should be talking to Russia and USA for emergency crude deals right now.
UAE's capacity of 4.2 million b/d is no joke. Their exit from OPEC isn't just symbolic - it changes the entire supply dynamics. But why is no one talking about the environmental cost? Maybe this crisis will finally push India to accelerate solar and wind. Har ghar rooftop solar lagao! 🌞
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