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Nifty 50 Forecast: Modest 7.6% Returns by 2026 Amid High Valuations

Bernstein's report projects modest returns of about 7.6% for the Nifty 50 index by the end of 2026, downgrading its stance on India to "neutral". The forecast is based on high current valuations, with India entering the year as one of the world's most expensive equity markets. The target of 28,100 assumes steady earnings growth but is constrained by a valuation multiple of 19 times forward earnings. Downside risks could see the index fall if earnings growth slows or valuations contract further.

Key Points: Nifty 50 Modest 7.6% Return Forecast for 2026 by Bernstein

  • High valuations limit upside
  • Bernstein cuts India to neutral
  • Nifty target 28,100 by end-2026
  • India among most expensive global markets
2 min read

Nifty 50 likely to deliver modest 7.6% returns by end-2026 as valuations remain high: Bernstein

Bernstein report cuts India to neutral, forecasting only 7.6% Nifty 50 returns by end-2026 due to high valuations as India enters among most expensive markets.

"we reach our Nifty target of 28,100 by the end of 2026 - which is a modest 7.6 per cent returns in the year - Bernstein"

New Delhi, January 8

The Nifty 50 index is expected to deliver only around 7.6 per cent returns by the end of 2026 as India enters the year as one of the most expensive equity markets globally, according to a report by Bernstein.

The report said that even after assuming steady earnings growth, returns from Indian equities are likely to remain modest due to high valuations. Bernstein highlighted that while 2025 was a moderate year for earnings, its estimates still point to limited upside for the benchmark index in 2026.

It stated "we reach our Nifty target of 28,100 by the end of 2026 - which is a modest 7.6 per cent returns in the year"

According to the report, assuming a 13.5 per cent earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) up to FY28 and applying a 19 times multiple on two-year forward earnings per share (EPS), the Nifty 50 target comes to 28,100. This implies a return of around 7.6/7.5 per cent, which Bernstein described as modest.

Based on this outlook and its focus on absolute returns, the brokerage said it has cut its stance on India to "neutral".

At the end of 2025, with the Nifty at 26,150, the index was trading at 20.4 times one-year forward earnings. Bernstein assumed a 15 per cent EPS growth for 2026/FY27, after adjusting for exceptional items, and 12 per cent growth for the following year.

Based on these assumptions and a 19 times two-year forward P/E, the Nifty target of 28,100 by the end of 2026 implies returns of about 7.6 per cent, much lower than the 11 per cent returns seen in 2025.

Bernstein noted that India is entering 2026 as one of the most expensive markets globally, trading at over 20 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E). This is significantly higher than the average P/E of 15.1 times across 15 key global economies tracked by the firm.

The report added that markets have now entered a phase of heavier valuations, which in the past has rewarded cheaper markets more than expensive ones.

On the downside, the report said risks appear balanced. If EPS growth slows to 8 per cent in each of the next two years and the valuation multiple falls to 18.5 times, the Nifty target could drop to 24,800, implying a 5 per cent decline from current levels.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
This is a bit disappointing for retail investors like me who started SIPs expecting double-digit returns. Maybe it's time to look at mid and small caps again? The premium for Indian markets is high, but our growth story is strong too. 🤔
R
Rohit P
Foreign brokerages always have a pessimistic view when it comes to India. Remember, they said the same thing last year and we delivered 11%. Our domestic flows (MFs, SIPs) are strong enough to support the market. Don't panic based on one report.
S
Sarah B
As an NRI investor, I find this analysis sobering. The P/E comparison with other global markets is stark. Might consider rebalancing my portfolio to include more international exposure for better risk-adjusted returns.
K
Karthik V
The key takeaway is "modest" returns, not negative. In the long term, compounding even at 7.6% is powerful. This is a reminder that equity is for the long haul, not quick gains. Keep your SIPs running, bhai log!
M
Meera T
While the report is data-driven, I respectfully disagree with the 'neutral' stance. It underestimates the potential for positive surprises from government reforms and capex cycles. The India premium exists for a reason – demographics and stability.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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