India's GDP Growth Holds Strong at 7.8% in Q3 FY26, Outlook Stable

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA, said the easing in growth to 7.8 per cent was largely on expected lines and was driven by agriculture and non-manufacturing industrial sectors, including mining, electricity and construction. However, she noted that both Q2 and Q3 numbers were healthier than anticipated.

She said "The Second Advance Estimate (SAE) for GDP for FY2026 has been pegged to expand by a robust 7.6 per cent in FY2026, up from 7.1 per cent in FY2025, with the manufacturing and services segments on the production side and the PFCE and GFCF on the expenditure side, expected to witness an improvement in their growth rates between these years".

She highlighted that manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA) expanded in double digits for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3 FY26, pointing to continued strength in the industrial segment.

Rajeev Juneja, President, PHDCCI, said the new estimates place Real GDP at Rs 322.58 lakh crore in FY2025-26, compared to Rs 299.89 lakh crore in 2024-25, translating into a 7.6 per cent growth rate.

He said "The revised GDP framework will enhance the credibility and analytical usefulness of India's national accounts statistics. The updated methodology is expected to provide policymakers, businesses, and investors with a more accurate picture of economic activity across sectors".

Sidharth Chowdhry, Managing Director, Dalcore, said the shift to the 2022-23 base year from 2011-12 reflects the evolving structure of the economy.

He noted that the use of granular datasets such as GST filings and corporate financials will ensure more accurate measurement of construction and development activity.

He said "For real estate, the use of granular datasets such as GST filings and corporate financials will ensure a more accurate capture of construction and development activity. With better measurement of sectoral output and demand trends, developers and investors can plan with greater confidence, backed by data that more closely mirrors real market condition".

Garima Kapoor, Deputy Head of Research and Economist at Elara Capital, said the latest GDP data keeps India firmly in the high-growth club.

She pointed out that manufacturing GVA is growing in double digits, construction and the wider secondary sector are printing around 10 per cent, and contact-intensive services such as trade, hotels, transport and communication are witnessing close to low double-digit growth.

She said "The shift to the 2022-23 base year strengthens data quality through wider GST integration, improved coverage of the unincorporated sector, double deflation in agriculture and manufacturing, and better benchmarking".

Kirthi Chilukuri, Founder & Managing Director, Stonecraft Group, said, "The revision of the GDP base year, supported by more granular and contemporary data inputs, marks an important step in strengthening the credibility and relevance of India's economic indicators. For the real estate sector, better measurement of construction activity, financial performance, and consumption trends will offer a more accurate reflection of market realities on the ground.

- ANI