Nepal Election Rout of Leftist Forces Deals Blow to Beijing's Influence

The RSP, led by former media personality Rabi Lamichhane and Prime Ministerial hopeful Balen Shah, emerged as the largest political party in the House of Representatives, securing nearly a two-thirds majority. Traditional political parties, including the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML), and the Nepal Communist Party, suffered significant defeats.

While the RSP secured a total of 182 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives, the Nepali Congress won 38 seats, the UML secured 25, and the Nepal Communist Party got 17.

One of the defining features of the election results is the humiliating defeat of communist forces in Nepal, which had dominated the country's politics for decades.

The UML, the Nepal Communist Party, and other leftist forces were ideologically closer to Beijing, which appeared to have sought to influence Nepal's policies through them.

"The election results for the leftist forces are unlikely to please Beijing, though the northern neighbour has said it is ready to work with the new government," Nepal's former Ambassador to China, Bishnu Pukar Shrestha told IANS. "They might be concerned about whether the RSP's thumping win could invite greater US influence in Nepal."

Opponents of the RSP had accused the party of acting in US interests. When RSP senior leader and former Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah did not include the Nepal-China Industrial Friendship Park - planned with Chinese investment in Jhapa - in his election agenda, supporters of K P Sharma Oli criticised him of being anti-China.

Following the election results, the Communist Party of China (CPC) sent a congratulatory message to the RSP. In a message issued from Beijing on March 11, the CPC extended "warm congratulations and best wishes" and emphasised its willingness to deepen political trust and promote high-quality cooperation under the controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while working towards a closer "China-Nepal community with a shared future".

Referring to its past engagements with the RSP, the CPC said it valued ongoing exchanges between the two parties and expressed confidence that, under the leadership of Rabi Lamichhane and Balen Shah, the RSP would continue to foster friendly relations with China and strengthen bilateral cooperation.

Beijing typically works with whichever party is in power and does not openly display political preference. However, many observers have perceived a tilt toward leftist forces in the past, which at times irked parties such as the Nepali Congress.

When the CPN-UML and the erstwhile CPN (Maoist Centre) merged in 2018 to form the Nepal Communist Party, many viewed it as influenced by Beijing. Before the merger, the two parties had formed an electoral alliance for the 2017 parliamentary polls, securing nearly a two-thirds majority in the 2017 parliamentary elections together.

In October 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Nepal. Just ahead of his visit, a two-day symposium for top leaders of the then-ruling Nepal Communist Party was held in Kathmandu on 'Xi Jinping Thought', with experts describing it as an ideological outreach by the CPC.

However, internal power struggles between co-chairs K P Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' eventually led to the party's collapse.

A few days before the Gen-Z movement in early September, Oli attended the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the 'Victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression' and the 'World Anti-Fascist War' at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, sparking controversy.

Given Nepal's official policy of non-alignment, the visit was seen as a pro-Beijing tilt in foreign policy. The subsequent Gen-Z movement led to the fall of the Oli government. Following the March 5 elections, the two largest communist forces have been reduced to the third and fourth-largest parties in Nepal's lower house.

Arun Subedi, former Foreign Policy Advisor to then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, said the emergence of the RSP represents a democratic alternative to the Nepali Congress. "The democratic world was searching for alternative democratic forces in Nepal, given that the Nepali Congress failed to counter communist influence," he said.

He added that the foreign policy approach of the RSP government can be assessed once it forms the government - RSP senior leader Shah is expected to be sworn in as the next Prime Minister on Friday.

In its election manifesto, the party has pledged to pursue a balanced and dynamic foreign policy to benefit from the rise of neighboring countries.

Regarding China, the RSP has proposed building a structured partnership framework focusing on concessional financing for world-class infrastructure, adopting state-guided socio-economic development programmes, and learning from inter-provincial competition models.

Although China has traditionally worked with ruling parties, in recent years it has made visible efforts to unify communist forces in Nepal. When the Nepal Communist Party was on the verge of collapse in 2021, Beijing reportedly attempted to keep it intact by engaging directly with party leaders. Analysts therefore view the decline of communist forces as a setback for Beijing.

China also considers Nepal strategically important in curbing the activities of exiled Tibetans, whom it regards as anti-China elements. According to Nepal's Home Ministry, around 12,000 Tibetan refugees live in the country. Communist governments in Nepal have generally taken a stricter stance in controlling such activities.

Nepal is also part of China's BRI, a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure initiative launched by Beijing in 2013. However, Nepal has not yet implemented any projects under the initiative which has been labelled as controversial, with Western countries accusing Beijing of pushing poorer nations into high debt by lending in unfeasible projects.

India has opposed the BRI particularly because the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) developed under it which passes through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) region.

Nepal's communist parties have been strong supporters of the BRI, while the Nepali Congress has also welcomed it but insists that financial assistance from Beijing should come in the form of grants. The RSP has remained largely silent on the matter, although the Chinese side mentioned the BRI in its congratulatory message.

However, no one expects a decisive shift in Nepal's foreign policy under the RSP, even if the degree of orientation may change. Still, China will no longer find its long-standing ideological partners in power.

Even before the recent elections, the Nepal Communist Party - formed through the merger of factions including the Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialist - was already losing political ground. Meanwhile, Oli faced criticism on social media over his role during the Gen-Z movement, which contributed to his party's electoral losses.

Whether the decline of communist forces in Nepal will be permanent remains unclear. In India, once-influential leftist parties have largely become marginal players.

Rajendra Maharjan, a political analyst who has studied communist movements globally, believes the poor electoral performance of communist forces indicates erosion in their support base, even though they still retain strong organisational structures.

"It does not necessarily signal the end of leftist politics in Nepal. Even if UML and Maoists are weakened, people will seek a leftist alternative," he said. "It may not be a communist party in name, but a leftist political force will emerge to raise the issues of poorer sections of society."

- IANS