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MSME Growth Moderates in Q4 Amid West Asia Crisis, Survey Shows

India's MSME manufacturing sector remained in expansion mode during the January-March 2026 quarter, though growth momentum moderated from the previous period. The slowdown is attributed to external challenges, particularly the West Asia crisis, which has caused significant logistics disruptions. Rerouting through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has increased transit times by 15-20 days, raising freight costs and complicating inventory management. While the outlook for the next quarter remains positive, it is softer, with policy support and stabilized external conditions seen as critical for sustaining growth.

Key Points: MSME Manufacturing Growth Slows Due to West Asia Crisis

  • Business Activity Index at 56.5 shows expansion
  • Outlook Index softens to 58.7 for next quarter
  • 37% of firms report higher new orders
  • Logistics disruptions add 15-20 days transit time
  • Hiring sentiment remains mixed with limited job growth
2 min read

MSME manufacturing sector expands in Jan-March period but growth moderates amid West Asia crisis: PHDCCI survey

PHDCCI survey finds India's MSME sector in expansion but growth moderating due to Red Sea disruptions impacting logistics and costs.

"Red Sea / Strait of Hormuz disruptions re-routing has added 15-20 days' transit time has caused trouble in inventory management - PHDCCI Report"

New Delhi, April 20

India's MSME manufacturing sector continued to remain in expansion mode during the January-March 2026 quarter, although growth momentum showed signs of moderation due to external challenges, particularly arising from the West Asia crisis, according to the SME Market Sentiment Index - Round 4 released by PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

As per the findings, the SME Business Activity Index stood at 56.5 in Q4 FY26, indicating continued expansion, though it moderated from 58.9 recorded in the previous quarter. Similarly, the SME Business Outlook Index registered 58.7 for Q1 FY27 (April-June 2026), lower than 60.7 in the previous quarter, reflecting a positive but softer outlook.

The SMESI, based on a quarterly survey of 3,000 manufacturing MSMEs across the country, serves as a key indicator of business activity and outlook. It comprises the SME Business Activity Index (SME-BAI) and the SME Business Outlook Index (SME-BOI).

The survey report noted that expansion in business activity was largely driven by new orders and production, although at a slower pace. Around 37 per cent of firms reported higher new orders, which supported increased production levels during the quarter.

However, the survey highlighted cautious trends in employment and logistics. Nearly 60 per cent of firms reported no change in employment levels and supplier delivery timelines, indicating limited hiring and stable domestic supply chain conditions. Inventory levels showed moderate improvement, pointing to gradual demand recovery.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains positive but cautious. About 37 per cent of firms expect expansion in business activity in the April-June 2026 quarter, while nearly half anticipate no change. Around 47 per cent expect an increase in capital expenditure, while hiring sentiment remains mixed, with 27 per cent expecting an increase and 23 per cent anticipating a decline.

The report emphasised that external factors, particularly the ongoing West Asia crisis, are impacting MSME operations.

It stated, "Red Sea / Strait of Hormuz disruptions re-routing has added 15-20 days' transit time has caused trouble in inventory management".

It further added logistics disruptions due to rerouting through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz have increased transit time by 15-20 days. Freight costs and marine insurance premiums have also risen, adding to input and export costs.

The findings indicate that while the MSME manufacturing sector remains resilient with continued expansion, policy support and stabilisation of external conditions will be critical to maintain growth momentum in the coming quarters.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

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Priya S
The moderation in growth is a bit worrying. The West Asia crisis is something beyond our control, but it's hitting our exports hard. 15-20 days extra transit time means delayed payments and cash flow issues for MSMEs. Hope things stabilize soon. 🙏
R
Rohit P
Positive but softer outlook sums it up perfectly. We're managing, but cautiously. The fact that nearly 60% of firms reported no change in employment is telling. Everyone is waiting and watching before hiring more people. Need stronger domestic demand to offset external shocks.
S
Sarah B
Reading this from an investment perspective. The MSME sector's resilience is impressive, but the survey shows capital expenditure plans are still positive (47%). This indicates underlying confidence. The key will be how policy supports them through this global logistics crisis.
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Vikram M
As someone running a small manufacturing unit, the increased marine insurance premium is killing our margins. We're absorbing costs because we can't always pass them to the customer. The report is accurate – it's a challenge. Jai Hind, but we need some practical help.
K
Karthik V
While the expansion is good, I respectfully think the survey could dive deeper. "Moderation due to West Asia crisis" is broad. What specific policy interventions are MSMEs asking for? Faster GST refunds? Easier credit? The report highlights the problem but solutions are vague.
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