Monsoon recovery to support kharif sowing as rainfall activity improves: Report
New Delhi, July 8
Improved monsoon momentum in July is expected to support the recovery of kharif sowing, while higher water availability and reservoir levels will likely mitigate the impact of uneven rainfall distribution across regions, according to a report by ICICI Bank.
The report noted, India's cumulative rainfall up to 6 July 2026 stood at 170.7 mm, 20 per cent below the long period average (LPA). While rainfall distribution remains uneven, activity has improved in recent weeks.
East and Northeast India continue to witness a significant deficit of 41 per cent below LPA, whereas rainfall has improved in Northwest India (19 per cent below LPA), South India (15 per cent above LPA), and Central India (5 per cent below LPA).
Eastern states including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and North Indian states -- Haryana and Punjab have received less rainfall along with Gujarat and Karnataka.
It noted, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have witnessed normal rainfall. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu has recorded excess rainfall.
At the sub-division level, 17 of 36 sub-divisions recorded deficient rainfall, 16 received normal rainfall, and three experienced excess precipitation, as per the report.
However, despite the prevailing deficits, the monsoon activity has strengthened in recent weeks, with improved rainfall across several regions.
"If sustained, this trend is expected to gradually narrow the seasonal shortfall," the report noted.
At the same time, it noted, India's kharif sowing is still below last year's level. As of 5 July 2026, kharif sowing stood at 35.1 million hectares, down 20.8 per cent YoY from 44.3 million hectares in the corresponding period last year, mainly due to deficient rainfall in major kharif-producing states.
Among key crops, rice, pulses, and coarse cereals witnessed the sharpest decline in acreage, while sugarcane, jute, and Mesta maintained relatively better sowing coverage.
On the other hand, the report notes while reservoir levels remain below optimal due to the delayed monsoon, improving basin-level water availability could help mitigate near-term risks from below-normal rainfall.
As per ICICI Bank, rainfall has seen an improvement in India despite intensifying El Nino conditions. Highlighting Indian Ocean Dipole is in neutral territory, the report said, "Current rainfall activity is positive for sowing."
— ANI
Reader Comments
Living in Chennai, we've had excess rainfall this year - our streets are waterlogged while North India struggles with deficit. This uneven distribution is becoming a pattern. We need better water management and inter-state cooperation to balance these extremes.
Good to see ICICI Bank providing these detailed analyses. As someone working in agri-economics, the 20% dip in kharif sowing is concerning but recoverable if the rains hold. The reservoir levels improving is key - that's our buffer against any dry spells later.
My family farms in Karnataka and we were really worried last month. The rains have picked up, but 20% below LPA is still a big gap. Hope the government's crop insurance schemes work properly this year - farmers can't afford another bad season. 🌾
Impressive how the monsoon can shift so dramatically within weeks. The India Ocean Dipole being neutral is actually good news - means El Nino might not hit as hard as feared. But let's be real, we need systemic changes in water conservation, not just hope for good rains every year.
Good rains in Tamil Nadu finally! We've been through severe drought years, so excess rainfall is a relief. But the deficit in eastern India is worrying - Bihar and UP need special attention. Let's hope the IMD predictions hold up and we see a normal monsoon overall.
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