Middle East outages to keep aluminium market tight near-term, but Indonesia-China supply wave caps upside: Goldman Sachs
New Delhi, June 21
Aluminium prices are set to stay elevated near-term as Middle East outages persist into 2027, but stronger supply growth from Indonesia and China will push the market back into surplus next year, a research report by Goldman Sachs on commodities said.
It also noted that these factors combined would keep the brokerage maintain its bearish stance on the commodity over the medium term.
Goldman Sachs said Middle East supply losses will persist longer than initially assumed. "Since our last update, industry feedback and company announcements point to a slower recovery in Middle East production than we had initially assumed," the report said. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the announced interim deal, smelters cannot immediately return to full capacity as damaged potlines need repairs and curtailed capacity must be restarted gradually. The bank downgraded Middle East output by 660kt in 2026 and 1Mt in 2027, assuming damaged capacity restarts in early 2027 rather than H2 2026. It now expects Bahrain output to return to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027 and the UAE by end-2027.
This near-term shock tightens the market balance. Goldman Sachs now expects the global aluminium market to post a 720kt deficit in 2026 and a 590kt surplus in 2027 versus a 570kt deficit/1.3Mt surplus prior. "This is the tale of two supply shocks: a near-term Middle East shock that tightens the 2026/2027 balance and supports near-term prices, set against a structural China-backed supply wave, led by Indonesia, that increasingly offsets the disruption over time and keeps us bearish further out," the bank said.
The global brokerage firm said Indonesia and China will drive the supply offset. Goldman Sachs raised its Indonesian primary aluminium production forecast to 1.7Mt in 2026 and 2.9Mt in 2027 from 1.6Mt and 2.5Mt previously, citing faster ramps at Adaro, Taijing Morowali and Juwan Weda Bay. Indonesian output is already up around 89% YoY YTD. For China, the bank raised its 2026/2027 production forecasts to 45.6Mt/46.3Mt as strong margins support restarts and overproduction above the 45Mt capacity cap.
On prices, Goldman Sachs nudged its Q3 2026/average 2027 higher LME aluminium forecasts to $3,300/$2,950/t from $3,200/$2,750/t, but remains below forwards at $3,400/$3,250/t. The bank closed its short Dec-26 LME aluminium trade and rolled to a short Dec-27, "where our forecast sits furthest below the forward and best expresses our structural surplus view." Risks remain two-sided: a slower Middle East restart would keep 2027 fairly balanced around $3,250/t, while a faster restart could lift the surplus toward 1.2Mt and push prices closer to $2,750/t.
— ANI
Reader Comments
India should really ramp up its own aluminium production capacity instead of relying on imports. We have bauxite reserves, we have smelters – but policy uncertainty keeps investors away. This volatility from Middle East supplies is a wake-up call for Make in India in the metals sector. 🇮🇳
Goldman Sachs being bearish on aluminium is interesting – but they've been wrong about commodities before. Remember their $100 oil predictions? 😅 Anyway, Indonesia and China adding capacity means we need to watch our own domestic producers. Nalco and Hindalco stocks might see some pressure if global prices cool.
Good perspective from the report. The aluminium market is definitely complex right now – Middle East tensions, China's capacity cap (that they're clearly exceeding), and Indonesia emerging as a major player. For India, this means we need to diversify our sourcing and maybe look at recycling scrap more aggressively. ♻️
The near-term deficit and surplus story makes sense – but I'm skeptical about China following its own 45Mt cap. They've been gaming these limits for years. If they keep overproducing, the surplus could be even bigger than Goldman expects. India should be ready to compete on costs and quality.
These international reports always focus on major producers but what about the impact on downstream industries in developing countries like ours? Higher aluminium prices mean more expensive auto parts, construction materials, and electronics. The common Indian consumer will feel this pinch indirectly. 📉
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