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Middle East Conflict Threatens India's GDP, Could Push Oil to $110

A financial report warns that the escalating Middle East conflict is creating significant economic pressure on India through rising energy costs and market volatility. The surge in Brent crude to $110 per barrel, linked to damaged Iranian infrastructure and closed supply routes, directly threatens GDP growth. Higher oil prices and a weakening rupee are expected to trigger inflationary pressures and increase the cost of funds. Despite the challenges, the report suggests the economy remains resilient and advises phased additions to investments following recent market corrections.

Key Points: Middle East War Impact: India's GDP at Risk, Oil May Hit $110

  • Oil price surge to $110 per barrel
  • GDP growth could fall to 6.5%
  • Rupee weakening & import cost rise
  • LNG supply disruptions from Qatar
  • Phased investment advised amid volatility
3 min read

Middle East conflict could dent India's GDP and push oil to $110: Report

Report warns escalating Middle East conflict could dent India's GDP growth by 0.25%, push Brent crude to $110, and trigger inflation.

"A 10% rise in oil prices may dent the GDP growth by approximately 0.25% - Emkay Wealth Management Report"

New Delhi, March 10

A new financial report from Emkay Wealth Management warns that the escalating Middle East conflict is creating significant economic pressure on India through rising energy costs and market volatility.

The report highlights that the conflict involves a "whole web of countries" and its impact may be more severe than many expect.

The primary concern for the Indian economy is the sharp increase in fuel costs. According to the report, "Brent has moved up from a range of US$ 65-US$ 70 per barrel to US$ 110 per barrel since the war broke out." This surge is linked to major infrastructure failures in the region.

"Iran's oil infrastructure has been damaged. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. LNG supply from Qatar is closed. Natural gas price has surged by 50%," the report added.

"The likely loss of LNG output for 2026 could range from 3.30 million tonnes over a fortnight to about 11.20 million tonnes if the war continues for a month or more," the report added.

These disruptions have a direct effect on India's national growth. The report states that "A 10% rise in oil prices may dent the GDP growth by approximately 0.25%." While the economy is "structurally tuned to grow at 7.00%," the report warns that "any grave negative development especially an exogenous factor may pull down the GDP to around 6.50%."

The conflict is also affecting the value of the local currency and investment markets. The report notes that "The Rupee weakens especially in times of conflicts and war," which makes imports like electronics and jewellery more expensive.

This leads to a situation where "higher crude prices and higher import costs would trigger inflationary pressures," resulting in "higher market yields and higher cost of funds."

Despite these challenges, the report suggests the economy remains resilient. It points out that "even such a fall would not change things drastically as the economy has gone through such situations earlier also and has displayed a high level of resilience."

For investors, the report suggests that because a "corrective downward movement has happened," it may make "immense sense to add to the existing investments in a phased manner."

The report also said that the Middle East conflict, in its impact, may be different depending on the time frame for which it is going to persist. If it is for a very short span, like three or four weeks, its impact may be transitory. However, if it is going to be another one or two months or more, then the adverse impact will be more severe.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rohit P
The report is right about our resilience. We've faced oil shocks before. But this time, the focus should be on accelerating our shift to renewables. Solar and wind energy independence is the long-term answer, not just managing price hikes.
D
David E
Working in the logistics sector, I see this first-hand. Fuel cost is our biggest expense. A sustained increase will make shipping everything more expensive, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers. The ripple effect is huge.
A
Ananya R
It's a global problem, but we feel it more as a developing economy. The weakening rupee makes my online subscriptions and any imported goods so much more expensive. Hope the situation de-escalates soon for everyone's sake.
S
Siddharth J
While the report's warning is valid, I respectfully disagree with the investor advice to "add to investments." For the average middle-class Indian, this is a time for caution, not aggressive investing. Preserving capital might be wiser until the dust settles.
K
Kavya N
The impact on GDP growth from 7% to 6.5% might seem small in reports, but it translates to fewer jobs, less investment in infrastructure, and slower wage growth for millions. Geopolitical stability is not a luxury, it's an economic necessity.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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