July rainfall pick-up positive for farm growth, rural incomes despite El Nino risk: Report
New Delhi, July 29
A pick-up in monsoon rainfall during July is expected to support agricultural growth and improve rural incomes, although strengthening El Nino conditions continue to pose risks to the southwest monsoon, according to a report by ICICI Bank.
The report said, "While monsoon is in deficit, pick-up in July is positive for agriculture growth and rural incomes."
ICICI Bank noted that El Nino conditions have strengthened further, with the R Nino 3.4 index steadily rising since the onset of the southwest monsoon.
"El Nino conditions have strengthened further, with R Nino 3.4 index rising steadily since the onset of the southwest monsoon to 1.94, approaching 2.0 threshold last observed during the 2015 southwest monsoon season. This continues to pose an elevated risk to monsoon rainfall," the report said.
However, the report added that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has turned positive at 0.44, which is expected to partly offset the adverse impact of El Nino on rainfall.
According to the report, cumulative rainfall up to July 27 stood at 343 mm, 16 per cent below the long period average (LPA), although the deficit narrowed following above-normal rainfall during the previous week.
The rainfall distribution remained uneven across regions. East India recorded a rainfall deficit of 30 per cent below the LPA, followed by South India at 29 per cent below the LPA. In comparison, Northwest India, at 10 per cent below the LPA, and Central India, at 4 per cent below the LPA, witnessed near-normal rainfall.
Out of the country's 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 20 received deficient rainfall, 13 recorded normal rainfall, while three registered excess rainfall, the report noted. During the week ending July 26, all-India rainfall was 27 per cent above the LPA, with rainfall of 84.5 mm against the normal level of 66.7 mm, helping narrow the cumulative deficit.
The report also highlighted that kharif sowing remains below last year's level due to delayed monsoon onset and uneven rainfall, though sowing momentum has improved for pulses, oilseeds and cotton.
On water availability, the report said reservoir storage continues to lag last year's level.
"As of 23 July 2026, the total live storage of 150 reservoirs stood at 70 BCM, accounting for 38% of the storage capacity of 182 BCM at full reservoir level... The improvement in reservoir storage compared with the previous week could provide some cushion against below normal rainfall," the report said.
Despite lower reservoir levels compared with last year, ICICI Bank said improved storage in recent weeks and relatively higher water availability in the western, central and northern regions could support kharif sowing in the coming weeks.
— ANI
Reader Comments
I'm a small farmer in Telangana, and the situation is mixed. We had good rains last week, but the earlier deficit has hurt our groundnut crop. The report mentions IOD turning positive - let's hope that helps offset El Nino. But we need more localized forecasts, not just aggregate data.
As an agricultural economist, I find this report concerning. Despite the July improvement, the deficit in East and South India is severe - 30% below normal. Kharif sowing is still lagging, and reservoir storage is only 38% of capacity. We need a comprehensive water management plan, not just hope for good rains. The 2026 reservoir data seems to be a typo in the article though.
What about farm loan waivers? In times like these, the government should announce relief measures. We're already seeing crop failures in some areas. The ICICI report is good for big farmers, but what about us small farmers who work on less than 2 acres? We need direct cash transfers or subsidies for seeds and fertilizers. 🙏
The positive IOD index is interesting. India's agricultural sector is so dependent on a few weather factors. I wish we had more investment in drought-resistant crops and better irrigation infrastructure. The reservoir storage is still low compared to last year - that's worrying for the Rabi season.
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