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JPMorgan: Oil Prices to Stay in Low $100s Despite Hormuz Reopening

JPMorgan predicts oil prices will remain in the low $100s per barrel for most of the year, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The bank cites persistent supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks in West Asia as key factors. Brent crude is forecast to average around $97 per barrel in 2026. Meanwhile, oil prices surged on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump criticized Iran's response to a peace proposal.

Key Points: JPMorgan: Oil Prices to Stay in Low $100s

  • JPMorgan sees oil prices in low $100s despite Hormuz reopening
  • Supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks persist
  • Brent crude forecast at $97/bbl for 2026
  • OPEC output fell by 830,000 bpd in April
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JPMorgan sees oil prices staying in low $100s despite Hormuz reopening

JPMorgan forecasts oil prices in low $100s despite Strait of Hormuz reopening, citing persistent supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks in West Asia.

"Disruptions in shipping, refinery operations and tanker availability are expected to continue weighing on global energy supply chains - JPMorgan Chase & Co."

New Delhi, May 12

Global crude oil prices are likely to remain in the low $100s per barrel mark for an extended period due to persistent supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks linked to tensions in West Asia, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

According to the investment bank's revised assessment, oil prices are expected to remain in the low-$100s range for most of the year, even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations in the coming weeks.

According to the report, disruptions in shipping, refinery operations and tanker availability are expected to continue weighing on global energy supply chains, preventing a quick correction in prices.

The global brokerage has projected that Brent crude could average around $97 per barrel in 2026, suggesting that energy markets may continue to face tight supply conditions over the medium term.

The report further noted that reopening of the Strait alone would not immediately stabilise the market, as logistical challenges across the broader oil transport network are likely to persist for months.

Meanwhile, oil prices surged again on Tuesday, with international benchmark Brent crude trading above $105 per barrel, up about 1 per cent, after US President Donald Trump criticised Iran's response to Washington's peace proposal, raising fresh concerns over regional stability and its impact on global oil flows.

Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed close to the $100-per-barrel mark, registering a gain of nearly 1 per cent.

Moreover, reports showed that crude output by OPEC declined by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million barrels per day.

In addition, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty came under sharp pressure, declining by around 1 per cent.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

S
Sneha F
JPMorgan's predictions are often self-fulfilling prophecies. But even if prices stay in low $100s, it's the Indian middle class and farmers who'll suffer most. The transport sector will pass on costs, and subsidies will strain the budget. Hope our policymakers are planning countermeasures.
M
Michael C
From a global perspective, this is a classic supply shock with persistent logistics issues. The Strait of Hormuz reopening alone won't fix things if the broader supply chain remains disrupted. India needs to diversify its energy sources—more Russian oil deals, more solar, and nuclear.
V
Vikram M
I respect the analysis, but it's frustrating that geopolitics always plays havoc with our economy. The US-Iran tensions, Trump's comments—again we pay the price. India must build its own energy security, maybe fast-track EV adoption and battery storage. Enough dependence on volatile regions. 😤
R
Ravi K
Good report, but I'm skeptical. Big banks often overstate price persistence. Remember when oil was supposed to stay above $150? Let's see how the summer demand and US strategic releases play out. Still, prudent fiscal management is key for India—high oil prices hurt our current account deficit.
A
Amanda J
As a foreigner living in India, I notice the impact daily. Petrol prices here are already high, and this will only add to cost of living. Globally, it's a reminder that energy transition can't come soon enough. But in the short term, India's reliance on imports is a vulnerability it must address.

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