Expert Warns: "Iranian Regime Cannot Be Trusted in Any Shape or Form"

Former U.S. Treasury counterterrorism analyst Jonathan Schanzer states the Iranian regime, operating on its 1979 revolutionary ideology, cannot be trusted despite a brokered peace. He warns that a weakened and angry Iran could be a dangerous "wounded animal" seeking retribution. Schanzer suggests Donald Trump's threatening rhetoric may have strategically pushed Iran to make a deal it otherwise would not. The long-term outlook depends on whether the regime adheres to no-hostilities agreements or faces internal evolution.

Key Points: US Analyst: Iran Cannot Be Trusted, Regime Ideology Remains

  • Regime's 1979 ideology is still guiding force
  • A weakened Iran could be a dangerous "wounded animal"
  • Trump's tactics may have pushed Iran to deal
  • Deal hinges on Iran agreeing to no future hostilities
  • Internal regime change remains a possibility
4 min read

"Iranian regime cannot be trusted in any shape or form," says Former US Treasury Counterterrorism analyst

Former US Treasury analyst Jonathan Schanzer says Iran's 1979 revolutionary ideology guides it, making the regime untrustworthy despite a new deal.

"Look, this regime cannot be trusted in any shape or form. - Jonathan Schanzer"

Washington DC, April 8

Even as a tenous peace has been brokered between US and Iran, experts feel the real proof will be seen by action on the ground. Executive Director at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies and former US Treasury counterterrorism analyst, Jonathan Schanzer said that the Iranian regime that operates on the ideology ushered in 1979, cannot be trusted.

Schanzer, in a conversation with ANI, was asked if it was safe for Iran to be left in this battered and bruised condition.

"Look, this regime cannot be trusted in any shape or form. It's better that the old Supreme Leader is not there. It's better that his son, who is reportedly more radical and currently in a coma or ill health, is unable to lead. It's better that top military and IRGC leaders have been taken off the board. This makes the regime weaker, but the problem is that it is still the regime. The revolutionary ideology from 1979 is still the guiding force behind every decision they make," he said.

Schanzer said that there can be concerns that an angry Iran may seek retribution.

"For that reason, there is ample room to be concerned that a weakened and angry Iran may seek retribution. They are not fearful of losing more people in a fight against the West that they believe they are destined to win. Yes, this could be a wounded animal that is quite dangerous," he said.

He also said that in the near future, there might be a revolution from within.

"The other way of looking at it is that they don't have the missiles, the nukes, or the money to reconstitute themselves quickly. In that sense, maybe we buy a reprieve of four to ten years where the regime is unable to carry out attacks. During that time, we might see some kind of evolution from within. I would prefer to see regime change, and covert activity could yet bring that about. But for now, it appears Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu are willing to leave the regime in place, provided they agree not to engage in future hostilities. That's a big "if" considering the core nature of this regime," he said.

When Schanzer was asked about US President Donald Trump's comments on "ending the civilization", he quoted a journalist and said that one needs to take Trump seriously, but not literally.

"Donald Trump's words do not always match his deeds. There was a journalist who famously quipped during Trump's first term that you need to take him seriously, but not literally. When he starts issuing these tweets, I never took it seriously that he was going to do something so horrific. But I do think the regime needed to have a little bit of doubt that the President might be willing to go all the way," he said.

It was quintessential Donald Trump who can go from threatening to annihilate a civilization to making a deal with a government within 15 hours.

"That scared a lot of people around the world, but more importantly, it scared the Islamic Republic and probably pushed them to make a decision they were not otherwise willing to make. Whether they follow through is another story, but one gets the sense that this was part of Trump's strategy. In every deal, he likes to have maximum flexibility and the ability to pivot from one tactic to another. You can go from threatening to annihilate a civilization to making a deal with a government within 15 hours. This is quintessential Donald Trump," he said.

Trump has suspended the "bombing and attack" campaign on Iran, announcing a two-week double-sided ceasefire and saying that the 10-point proposal from Iran was workable.

Iran has put forward a comprehensive 10-point framework that it says forms the basis of a complete resolution. According to the statement, the United States is expected to commit to several key principles, including "Non-aggression" and the "Continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz," a crucial global oil transit chokepoint.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

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Priya S
It's a very complex situation. While the regime's actions are problematic, we must remember the ordinary Iranian people who suffer the most from sanctions and conflict. A diplomatic solution that lifts their hardships is crucial. 🇮🇳🤝
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Rohit P
"Take him seriously, not literally" – that line sums up so much of global politics today! 😅 The unpredictability might work as a tactic, but for countries like India that need stable trade routes (like the Strait of Hormuz), this rollercoaster is nerve-wracking.
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Sarah B
As an observer, I think the analysis is spot-on but a bit one-sided. The US has also contributed to the distrust. Lasting peace needs mutual steps. India's historical ties with Iran show that engagement, even with difficult regimes, is sometimes necessary for larger national interests.
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Vikram M
The mention of the Strait of Hormuz control is key for India. Nearly 70% of our oil imports pass through there. Any deal must ensure uninterrupted and safe passage for global shipping. Our foreign policy has to navigate this US-Iran tension very carefully.
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Karthik V
With respect, the expert's view is very Washington-centric. The world isn't just the US and Iran. Nations like India, China, and Russia have stakes too. A "wounded animal" analogy is dramatic, but solutions require involving regional powers, not just threats or covert action.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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