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Iran War Fuels China's Hog Crisis as Feed Costs Soar, Demand Plummets

The Iran conflict is driving up global grain and input costs, significantly increasing prices for key animal feed ingredients like soymeal and corn in China. This surge compounds a severe crisis for Chinese hog producers, who are already grappling with pork prices at a 16-year low due to market overcapacity and weak demand. As a result, farmers are now losing hundreds of yuan on each pig sold, pushing smaller operations toward bankruptcy. In response, Chinese authorities are implementing measures like culling sow herds and purchasing pork for state reserves to stabilize the collapsing market.

Key Points: Iran War Raises China Hog Feed Costs Amid 16-Year Pork Price Low

  • Soymeal & corn prices surge
  • Pork prices at 16-year low
  • Farmers losing 280-350 yuan per hog
  • Small farmers risk going out of business
  • State buying reserves to stabilize market
2 min read

Iran war pushes feed costs, worsening China's weak hog demand: Report

Rising grain costs from Iran conflict pressure Chinese hog farmers facing weak demand and 16-year low pork prices, causing heavy losses.

"Raising a hog... currently costs 12.2-12.5 yuan per kg, which leads to a farmer incurring a loss of 280-350 yuan for each pig they sell - Analyst"

New Delhi, March 28

Rising grain and input costs due to the Iran war are lifting animal feed prices in China, putting pressure on hog producers already suffering from weak demand and pork prices at 16‑year lows, a new report has said.

In March, spot soymeal prices rose 7 per cent or over 200 yuan per tonne and corn by 4 per cent or around 100 yuan per tonne, according to reports.

China is the world's biggest pig market and producers are dependent on two key feed ingredients namely, soymeal and corn.

Futures for soymeal and corn on the Dalian exchange rose to multi‑month highs since the conflict began on February 28, partly due to higher oil prices, freight rates and rising fertiliser costs, a Reuters report cited analysts as saying.

An analyst said that other hog feed inputs, including lysine, methionine, fishmeal and vitamins A and E, have surged between 6 per cent and 77 per cent this month.

Chinese hog producers, who account for half of the world's pigs, have been facing falling pork prices due to overcapacity and falling demand.

Cash prices tumbled to 9.69 yuan per kg - the lowest in 16 ‌years, ⁠the report cited JCI.

Raising a hog that weighs about 60-62.5 kg currently costs 12.2-12.5 yuan per kg, which leads to a farmer incurring a loss of 280-350 yuan for each pig they sell, according to an analyst.

Smaller farmers, representing less than 30 per cent of China's pig market, face prospects of going out of business being increasingly vulnerable to price swings because of their small scale.

The report mentioned about a 600-head pig farmer in northern Hebei province losing money for a year now, even before feed costs jumped sharply in March.

"Since 2025, Chinese authorities have intensified efforts to rein in overcapacity, urging breeders to cut sow numbers and manage slaughter rates, while recently buying frozen pork for state reserves to stabilise prices," the report said.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
Very detailed report. The ripple effects are massive. If China's hog farmers are struggling this much, it could eventually affect meat imports globally. Wonder if this will create an opportunity for Indian meat exporters?
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Priyanka N
Losing 280-350 yuan per pig is devastating for small farmers. My uncle has a small dairy farm here, and when feed costs jump, it's a nightmare. Feel for them. Hope the state reserves help, but often such measures are too little, too late for the smallest players.
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Aman W
The overcapacity issue is key. China built up massive herds, and now demand is down. It's a lesson for any agri-business - don't just scale up blindly. Market forces will correct it, but at a huge human cost. Jai Kisan.
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Michael C
Interesting analysis. The 77% surge in some feed inputs is staggering. This will push up costs for poultry and aquaculture too, not just pork. Global food inflation is a real concern.
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Kriti O
While the situation is tough, the report could have explored more on why pork demand is falling in China. Is it changing diets, economic slowdown, or health concerns? Understanding demand is as important as supply costs.

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