Iran and US Exhausted, Seek Truce: Former Diplomat Surendra Kumar

Kumar, while speaking to ANI, said that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's multi-nation tour perhaps suggests his seriousness.

"I personally feel that both sides are exhausted and truly want an agreement. However, both sides also want to project to their constituents that they have not succumbed to pressure and have safeguarded their national interests. The extensive travels of the Iranian foreign minister--from Islamabad to Doha and now to Moscow--suggest that the Iranians are serious. Despite their public rhetoric, they are realizing their limitations. They have suffered enormous devastation, and with the blockade, their earnings will vanish," he said.

Kumar said that even Trump's ultimatums have softened.

"Any development that lowers the temperature and softens the tone should be welcomed. Previously, President Trump was giving ultimatums, demanding surrender by a specific date or threatening total destruction. That tone has shifted. Offering a phone number or a meeting is a significant departure from his previous standard. While nobody can predict his next move, the current tone is noticeably more positive. This is even evident in the Iranian foreign minister's departure from Pakistan before the American delegation arrived; his reaction was not sharp, simply noting the futility of a long journey if neither side is ready," he said.

Kumar noted that mediation efforts by friendly countries are welcome.

"Consequently, they are looking for a solution. Mediation efforts by trusted partners like Oman are crucial. Despite previous tensions, Oman seems to understand Iran's position, and the fact that they received the Iranian foreign minister shows they support the mediation efforts," he said.

He also noted that global attention has shifted away from Iran for a few days, giving mediators on both sides time to work out a more acceptable compromise.

"I am cautiously optimistic that something is working. Following the shootout at the press dinner, global attention has shifted away from Iran for a few days, giving mediators on both sides time to work out a more acceptable compromise. We should hope for a resolution to this long conflict, which has caused suffering not only for Iranians but for the entire world, impacting international supply chains and shipping. Hopefully, the blockade and Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz will end, allowing for a return to business as usual," he said.

Kumar further said that China and Russia have been the primary beneficiaries of the current situation as the largest importers of Iranian oil, underscoring the importance of Iran FM's visit.

"The Iranian foreign minister's presence in Russia is a significant development. China and Russia have been the primary beneficiaries of the current situation as the largest importers of Iranian oil. Despite American warnings against buying oil, market considerations often prevail. Both nations depend heavily on Iran but also recognize the geopolitical limitations. President Trump is scheduled to visit China next month and has been softening his tone toward Russia, suggesting he might invite Putin to the G20 in Florida or bring Russia back into the G7 to make it the G8. He is dangling a carrot to Russia to bring them back into the mainstream of international discourse," he said.

Kumar noted that despite their support to Iran, China and Russia are unlikely to openly challenge the US.

"While China and Russia may voice concerns about violations of international law or the blockade, they are unlikely to openly challenge the United States. Iranians, meanwhile, are looking for guarantees. Recalling the last P5+1 agreement, they want assurance that they won't be attacked again in six months. They want China and Russia on their side to see to what extent the Russians can support them. Generally, the Russians seem willing to provide support, provided it stops short of an open, vehement challenge to Trump. Overall, the process appears to be moving toward a solution, likely arriving in the very near future," he said.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has communicated a definitive list of Tehran's "red lines" to be passed to the United States during his recent diplomatic mission to Pakistan, according to Iranian state media outlet Fars.

- ANI