Iran Leadership Shift Sparks Fears of Wider War, Oil Route Disruption

Ero, who has been monitoring the conflict closely, says the current phase of the war reflects long-term strategic planning by Iran, particularly following last year's 12-day confrontation involving Iran, the United States and Israel. The conflict, she argues, had already laid the groundwork for a broader regional confrontation.

Speaking on the evolving crisis, Ero noted that the current developments were not entirely unexpected, as Iran had been preparing for such a scenario.

"I mean, this has really been a war that Iran had been preparing for, preparing the ground for, especially after the 12-day war last year between itself, the US, and Israel as well," Ero said.

The widening conflict has raised alarm across the region after Iran reportedly launched strikes affecting several Gulf countries where US military assets are located. Ero says these actions signal a broader strategic response aimed at expanding pressure points beyond the immediate battlefield.

"I think what has alarmed a number of people is that Iran has also managed to hit out at a number of Gulf countries, largely because US assets were also in those countries and further filled into Cyprus," she observed.

The developments have also revived fears about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical shipping routes for crude oil. Any disruption in the strait could significantly impact global energy markets.

"I think there's increasing concern about what this means in terms of the Strait of Hormuz, energy, oil prices, and the future of security in an ever-transforming Middle East as well," she added.

Meanwhile, Iran's newly installed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued strong warnings demanding the closure of US military bases across the region, saying they should be dismantled immediately and cautioning that they could face missile strikes.

However, Ero notes that such rhetoric reflects a long-standing position within Iran's political doctrine.

"Look, this idea about removing US bases in the region, it's not new, that's always been in the DNA of the Iranian regime. It's always been part of the Persian outlook that they didn't want the US to continue to shape peace and security in the region," Ero said.

Ero contrasted this view with the perspective of Gulf nations and Israel, which continue to see the US as a critical component of regional security arrangements.

"Contrast that with Gulf countries and Israel that see the importance of having the US be part of the security architecture," Ero added.

Beyond the immediate military fallout, she warns that the war could have severe economic consequences, particularly for global energy markets.

"Again, I think it was predictable that one of the casualties of this war wasn't just going to be the civilian tolls, and that's been quite dramatic, civilian suffering, particularly in Iran and all the other countries, and Israel also. But the other casualty was always going to be the economy, and the oil, and the Strait of Hormuz was always on the table."

"So putting pressure on other countries, choking off oil supply routes, this was always going to be the game plan. It should not come as a surprise to anybody watching this," Ero said.

The situation has already triggered global economic calculations, including concerns about energy reserves and supply disruptions.

"I've already seen a number of countries making calculations. India, where I'm speaking from already, predictions about how long you can hold on to your reserves," she noted.

At the same time, the evolving crisis is prompting major powers to reassess energy policies and sanctions frameworks in order to stabilise markets.

"We're seeing already, as we know the news this morning, is the U.S. lifting the sanctions on Russia so that we can release some of that energy into the markets and then help deal with the oil prices as well," Ero said.

Ero says the conflict underscores how geopolitical tensions in West Asia can have far-reaching implications for global diplomacy, trade and economic stability.

"Every single conversation that I've listened to, it's been about the seismic impact of Iran in West Asia and the implications, not just for the immediate neighbourhood, but further afield for diplomacy, for international cooperation, for the global economy, concerns about inflation, concerns about the cost of living," Ero added.

- ANI