Al-Qaeda's Mali Attacks Could Trigger AQIS Resurgence in India

Following the death of Osama Bin Laden and other senior functionaries of the outfit, many had presumed that the Al-Qaeda is on its decline. The outfit even launched its wing called the All-Qaeda in the Sub-Continent (AQIS). The outfit was launched in Afghanistan with its primary focus being on India. The outfit did not take off as it would have expected, but it still remains a grave threat.

Officials say that there is an emerging pattern that one notices where the outfit is concerned. The Al-Qaeda has over the years made significant progress in Africa. The attacks in Mali which falls in West Africa is testimony of how powerful the outfit is, the official added.

What the Al-Qaeda benefited from is that the world had taken its eyes off the outfit, thinking that it had gone down. None expected a resurgence and the fact that it was off the radar in fact helped the outfit rebuild.

The same is in the case of the AQIS. It has remained relatively quiet for several years now. It has focussed its resources on online propaganda, but has deliberately ensured that it is not as vocal as the Islamic State.

An Intelligence Bureau official says that such attacks, like the one we saw in Mali, are all factors that the AQIS would take into account to relaunch itself in a big way. The law enforcement agencies cannot afford to take the AQIS lightly as it is capable of making a comeback in a very big way.

Moreover, the AQIS is capable of generating more traction in India when compared to the Islamic State. Many, especially within the southern states still consider Osama Bin Laden to be a hero. Despite being gone for long, Bin Laden is still a big draw and an extremely polarising figure, the official added.

Another official said that the Al-Qaeda has learnt the art of deception. Take the case of the attacks in Mali. The JNIM is an affiliate of the Al-Qaeda and draws inspiration from its ideology and Bin Laden. The official said that the Al-Qaeda would continue to operate through its affiliates. For the terror group, the important thing is to get the job done instead of claiming credit for attacks.

An official said that the Mali attack serves as inspiration for the AQIS. It would cite such attacks during its propaganda campaign and look to lure the youth into its fold. The official said that in India, the affiliate of the AQIS is the Base Movement. This group which had been lying low for several years has started boosting up its online propaganda. The Mali attacks would act as a booster for the Base Movement to step up operations in India, the official added.

Officials also say that the AQIS and Base Movement have several operatives across the country. They had deliberately kept a low profile for all these years. The flurry of online activity that the Intelligence agencies are picking up recently suggest that these operatives are likely to come out and prepare for strikes in India.

The official added that the world is currently busy with the events in Iran. Many countries which kept tabs on the Al-Qaeda are currently focussed elsewhere and this is something that the Al-Qaeda is taking advantage of.

A similar trend is being noticed where the AQIS is concerned. It is looking to take advantage of the fact that the attention of the world is elsewhere. Taking advantage of the situation across the world and also the fact that it carried out a major attack in Mali, the AQIS would use this to push their agenda and carry out major strikes in India, the Intelligence agencies warn.

- IANS