India's total vehicle production across all segments projected to reach 50 million units by 2030: Rubix
New Delhi, August 6
Under the nation's Automotive Mission Plan 2047, total vehicle production across all segments is projected to expand from 34.71 million units in FY26 to 50 million units by 2030, eventually reaching 200 million units by 2047.
According to a report by Rubix Data Sciences, the commercial vehicle (CV) market experienced a parallel structural transformation. Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCVs) increased their share of total CV sales from 28 per cent to 39 per cent, sustained by demand across infrastructure, mining, and long-haul freight operations.
The report also mentioned that India is positioned as the third-largest global automobile market in 2025.
Utility Vehicles have cemented their dominance in the Indian automotive market, with sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and crossovers capturing 65 per cent of all passenger vehicle (PV) sales in FY25, up from 39 per cent in FY21.
The landmark shift towards larger vehicles comes as domestic passenger vehicle sales grew at an 11 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2.71 million units to 4.64 million units over the same period.
In FY26, PV sales grew by approximately 8 per cent year-on-year, while CV sales rose by 12.5 per cent. The report attributes this growth to reduced tax burdens under GST 2.0 alongside lower financing costs from easing Reserve Bank of India repo rates.
On the international front, PV exports achieved a record 0.77 million units in FY25 at a 17 per cent CAGR, driven by compact cars and utility vehicles from major original equipment manufacturers. Maruti Suzuki recorded a 34 per cent surge in exports to a record 4.47 lakh units in FY26. Saudi Arabia emerged as the largest market for Indian truck exports, while the UAE led in bus exports.
Commenting on the sector's trajectory, Tushar Bhaskar, President of Rubix Data Sciences, noted that scale brings distinct operational demands.
"India's passenger and commercial vehicle industry is entering a phase of scale we haven't seen before, but scale like this always outruns risk management before it outruns demand," Bhaskar said.
"Every record export number and capacity announcement from an OEM sits on top of a much longer chain of component makers, dealers and logistics partners whose balance sheets weren't built for this pace of change," he added. "The winners over the next decade will be the companies that can grow while seeing the risk building three tiers down their supply chain before it reaches them."
Despite the growth, the report details near-term supply chain vulnerabilities linked to West Asia, rising compliance expenditures from tightening emission standards, and raw material price volatility.
Key industry growth drivers remain the PLI Scheme, advanced technology adoption such as ADAS penetration, which rose to 8.3 per cent in H1 2025, and expanding electric vehicle adoption.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Good to see India becoming a global auto hub! The export numbers are particularly encouraging - Maruti exporting 4.47 lakh units is no small feat. But I hope the government ensures that the benefits of this growth reach the smaller component manufacturers and dealers too, not just the big OEMs. 🇮🇳
The shift to SUVs is concerning. We're moving toward larger, more fuel-consuming vehicles while the world is trying to reduce carbon emissions. The 65% SUV share in PV sales shows we're going the wrong way. The government should incentivize smaller, more efficient cars and EVs instead of letting this trend continue unchecked.
As someone who follows global auto markets, India's trajectory is genuinely impressive. The 17% CAGR in exports shows Indian manufacturing is becoming globally competitive. But the supply chain concerns mentioned in the report are real - especially with West Asia tensions. Companies need to diversify their supplier base.
Great news for the economy! But I'm worried about the environmental impact. 200 million vehicles by 2047? Our cities will become parking lots. We need to seriously push electric vehicles and shared mobility. The PLI scheme should be more focused on green technology rather than just traditional manufacturing. 🌱
The 12.5% growth in commercial vehicles is a strong indicator of our infrastructure and logistics boom. But we need to ensure this growth is sustainable. The report correctly points out that many smaller players in the supply chain may not be ready for this pace. The government should support them with easier credit and technology adoption.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.