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India's Q3 FY26 GDP Growth Projected at 8.3% Despite High Base: UBI

A Union Bank of India report projects India's GDP growth for the third quarter of FY26 at 8.3%, a significant rise from 6.4% in the same quarter the previous year. This elevated growth is attributed to momentum following GST rate cuts, overcoming an adverse base effect. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth is estimated to have moderated to 8.5%, linked to a falling GDP deflator amid declining inflation. The report's estimates use the old base year, pending official revision by the Ministry of Statistics, which is set to release the updated data.

Key Points: India Q3 FY26 GDP Growth Forecast 8.3% by Union Bank Report

  • Q3 FY26 GDP forecast at 8.3%
  • Growth propelled by GST rate cuts
  • GVA growth estimated at 8.0%
  • Nominal GDP growth slows to 8.5%
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India's third-quarter GDP for FY26 likely at 8.3% despite adverse base effect: UBI Report

Union Bank of India report forecasts India's Q3 FY26 GDP growth at 8.3%, driven by post-GST cuts, with nominal growth moderating to 8.5%.

"GDP data for Q3 FY26, due on 27th February, likely clocked 8.3% - Union Bank of India Report"

New Delhi, February 27

The country's Gross Domestic Product growth for the third quarter of the current financial year is likely to remain elevated at 8.3 per cent despite an adverse base effect, according to a report by Union Bank of India.

The report noted that Q3 FY26 GDP growth likely remained elevated at 8.3 per cent, propelled by growth following the GST rate cut, even as it faced an unfavourable base effect.

It stated "GDP data for Q3 FY26, due on 27th February, likely clocked 8.3%, sharply higher from the same period previous year (Q3 FY25: 6.4 per cent)".

The Gross Value Added (GVA) growth for Q3 FY26 is likely to have improved to 8.0 per cent from 6.5 per cent in Q3 FY25, though it may be marginally slower than 8.1 per cent recorded in Q2.

More importantly, the report highlighted that nominal GDP growth likely slowed further to 8.5 per cent from 8.7 per cent in Q2 and 10.3 per cent in the same period last year. The moderation in nominal GDP growth is attributed to a fall in the GDP deflator amid declining inflation.

The bank, however, clarified that given the uncertainty with respect to the impact from the base year revision on GDP numbers, its estimates have been provided based on the old base year.

While the report mentioned that the growth outlook for FY26 remains broadly resilient and early indicators for FY27 suggest continued momentum, the report stated that annual estimates will need to be revisited once clarity emerges on the forthcoming GDP base revision by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

The government's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data with the revised base year of 2022-23 today.

The upcoming release is expected to provide further clarity on growth trends and the impact of the base year revision on the overall economic assessment.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
The numbers look promising, but I'm cautiously optimistic. The report itself mentions the uncertainty due to the base year revision. Let's wait for the official MoSPI data today before celebrating.
P
Priya S
Growth is good, but is it reaching the common man? I hope this translates to more jobs and better salaries. The nominal GDP slowing down is a point to watch.
R
Rohit P
Waah! From 6.4% to 8.3% is a big jump. If this momentum continues, we are well on our way to becoming a $5 trillion economy. Kudos to all the hardworking entrepreneurs and farmers driving this.
M
Michael C
As an investor watching India, these are very encouraging figures. The resilience is impressive. The key will be sustaining this through global headwinds. The base revision data will be crucial.
K
Kavya N
Good growth, but inflation coming down is the real win for my household budget. The report says the nominal GDP slowdown is due to falling inflation (GDP deflator). That's some relief for the aam aadmi.
V
Vikram M
Respectfully, while the headline number is great, we must read the fine print. The estimates are on the *old* base year. The new MoSPI data with

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