India's Silver Import Surge Sparks Strategic Vulnerability Warning

Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warn that the country's heavy dependence on imports, combined with limited domestic processing capacity, could become a strategic vulnerability as global demand tightens and geopolitical risks rise.

Silver prices in India nearly tripled in rupee terms during 2025, climbing from around Rs 80,000-85,000 per kg at the beginning of the year to over Rs 2.43 lakh per kg by early January 2026. The rally is attributed to a combination of factors, including geopolitical tensions, investor demand, and strong industrial consumption.

Globally, silver has undergone a transformation from a traditional precious metal to a strategic industrial input. More than half of global silver demand is now industrial, driven by electronics, solar power, electric vehicles, defence applications, and medical technologies. Solar energy alone accounts for roughly 15 per cent of global silver consumption, a share that continues to rise as renewable capacity expands.

Trade data reflect this shift. Global trade in refined silver has expanded nearly eight-fold since 2000, reaching over USD 31 billion in 2024. At the same time, persistent supply deficits of 200-250 million ounces per year have emerged as mine output remains largely flat while demand accelerates.

India accounted for about 21.4 per cent of global refined silver imports in 2024, making it the single largest importer. However, unlike China, which dominates global silver processing by importing ores and concentrates and exporting higher-value manufactured products, India largely imports finished silver in bars and rods. In FY2025, India exported less than USD 500 million worth of silver products while importing over USD 4.8 billion, underscoring its import dependence.

The GTRI report also flags growing global supply risks. China, the world's largest silver processor, has moved to a licence-based silver export regime from January 1, 2026, heightening supply anxiety. In addition, a USD 3.6 billion gap between reported global exports and imports of silver ores in 2024 points to opaque trade flows and weak transparency in silver supply chains.

GTRI notes that India must treat silver as a critical industrial and energy-transition metal rather than merely a precious commodity. It recommends expanding domestic refining and recycling capacity, securing overseas mining partnerships, and diversifying import sources to reduce strategic risks.

As competition for critical minerals intensifies globally, the report warns that India's long-term industrial and clean-energy ambitions could be constrained unless silver processing is brought firmly into the country's strategic policy framework.

- ANI