India's real GDP growth likely at 6.6 pc in FY27: Report
New Delhi, June 24
India's real gross domestic product growth will touch 6.6 per cent in FY27 amid energy stress, a sub‑par monsoon outlook and slowing global growth, a report said on Wednesday.
The report from S&P Global Ratings said consumer inflation in India is expected to rise to 5.1 per cent this fiscal year as manufacturers pass higher energy costs to consumers. alongside recent increases in administered prices for petrol, diesel and cooking gas.
The firm forecasted a policy rate hike in the second half of the year, adding that "with the current account deficit on the rise and the rupee weakening, the authorities took measures to encourage foreign capital inflows."
These measures have strengthened the rupee visa-vis the US dollar to some extent, the report noted.
Asia‑Pacific outlook is shaped by resilient global activity, energy market stress and an AI‑driven tech export boom.
"The global economy seems to have persevered in the face of the Middle East conflict and resulting energy stress. The resilience has been supported by strong AI-related investment, especially in the US, and accommodative financial conditions," the report said.
The impact of the energy stress is visible as input costs and suppliers' delivery times have risen substantially.
"Higher fertilizer prices weigh on food production and raise food prices. Rising inflation is eroding purchasing power, thus depressing growth. Sharply higher fertilizer prices may weigh on food production and fuel food prices," it added.
The firm's baseline forecast assumes disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually ease in the second half of the year. It expected global oil prices to remain elevated in the coming months and should ease gradually thereafter, returning to pre-crisis levels in early 2028.
Even as governments continue to reduce the impact of higher oil, prices on fuel product prices, higher costs of products and services, could push consumer inflation 0.5-0.6 ppts higher in the third quarter in China, India, and Japan, with 2026 year-average inflation 0.3-0.4 ppts higher.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Good to see some optimism in S&P's report, but the mention of energy stress and poor monsoon is worrying. We're already feeling it at the petrol pump. Hope the policy rate hike doesn't make loans too expensive for small businesses.
The report says AI-driven tech exports are helping, but where's the trickle-down for the average Indian? Fertilizer prices are up, food costs are high, and the rupee is weak. 6.6% growth is good on paper, but we need inclusive growth, not just headline numbers. 🙏
Interesting that the report expects global oil prices to ease only by 2028. That's a long wait! Meanwhile, our cooking gas and fuel costs keep climbing. The 0.5-0.6 ppt inflation bump in Q3 will hit hard. Need more aggressive steps to shield consumers.
The report's assumption about the Strait of Hormuz easing is a big 'if'. With the Middle East conflict ongoing, we can't just rely on that. India needs to diversify energy sources fast—more solar, wind, and maybe nuclear. Relying on global stability is risky. 🤞
6.6% is decent but not stellar. The real issue is inflation eating into wages. The report mentioning higher fertilizer prices hitting food production is scary—everyday dal, sabzi, and roti getting costlier. Hope the RBI's rate hike cools things without crushing growth.
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