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India's Exports to Hit $112 Billion in Q1 FY27, Report Shows

India's total merchandise exports are projected at $111.9 billion for April-June 2026, showing marginal year-on-year growth. Non-oil exports are forecast to reach $97.8 billion, a 3.5% increase, supported by geographical diversification and policy interventions. Trade negotiations with select countries and expected global demand pickup may sustain growth. However, risks from global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and commodity market volatility persist.

Key Points: India's Q1 FY27 Exports Seen at $112 Billion

  • India's total merchandise exports forecast at $111.9 billion in Q1 FY27
  • Non-oil exports estimated at $97.8 billion, growth of 3.5% YoY
  • Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports at $90.4 billion, up 3%
  • Downside risks from global uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, commodity volatility
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India's merchandise exports seen at nearly $112 billion in Q1 FY27: Report

India's merchandise exports are forecast at $111.9 billion in Q1 FY27, with non-oil exports growing 3.5%, says India Exim Bank report.

"Growth in non-oil exports is expected to be supported by increasing geographical diversification of shipments, timely policy interventions and targeted emergency credit support measures. - India Exim Bank Report"

New Delhi, May 13

India's total merchandise exports are pegged at $111.9 billion during the April-June quarter of FY27, a marginal year-on-year growth, according to a report released on Wednesday.

According to the government-backed Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank)'s latest quarterly export outlook, non-oil exports are forecast at $97.8 billion during the first quarter of FY27, a growth of 3.5 per cent over the corresponding period last year.

Meanwhile, non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are estimated at $90.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of about 3 per cent during the same quarter.

The bank noted that growth in non-oil exports is expected to be supported by increasing geographical diversification of shipments, timely policy interventions and targeted emergency credit support measures.

It further added that recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries are likely to sustain growth momentum in non-oil export segments.

Moreover, India's export outlook could also benefit from an expected pickup in global demand and favourable exchange rate movements, according to the report.

However, the bank cautioned that downside risks continue to persist due to global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international commodity markets.

Notably, India Exim Bank releases quarterly forecasts for merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports through its in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) model.

The model has been developed to track and forecast the movement of India's exports on a quarterly basis by assessing various domestic and global factors that could influence export performance.

The bank said the next export forecast for the July-September quarter of FY27 will be released during the first fortnight of August 2026.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
The geographical diversification part is key! We can't depend only on US and Europe. Africa and Latin America have huge potential. Hope the trade negotiations mentioned actually open new doors. 🇮🇳
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Aditya G
$112 billion is decent but we need to be realistic. Global demand is still shaky with recession fears in the West. The war in Ukraine and Middle East tensions won't help either. Let's see how things pan out by July.
M
Michelle N
As an exporter in Bangalore, I can tell you the currency fluctuation is a double-edged sword. Rupee weakness helps exports but hurts our import bills. We need stable policies, not just forecasts. 😕
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Nisha Z
Finally some good news for the economy! Our textile and pharma sectors deserve credit. But please focus on reducing compliance burden - we're still losing to Vietnam in many segments. Jai Hind! 🙏
K
Kavita C
Interesting that gems & jewellery are still a separate category. The industry has been struggling since the pandemic. Hope the "geopolitical conflicts" warning is taken seriously - we need supply chain resilience more than ever.
J
James A
As someone dealing with Indian suppliers, the "favorable exchange rate movements" comment is interesting. But what about infrastructure constraints?

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