India's GDP growth to outpace China's by 3 percentage points by 2028: Moody's
New Delhi, November 11
India's economy is projected to grow much faster than China's over the next three years, with the gap between their growth rates expected to widen to 3 percentage points by 2028, according to Moody's Ratings.
In its Global Macro Outlook 2027-28 report, the ratings agency projected India's GDP growth at 7 per cent in 2028, compared with 4 per cent for China, highlighting the contrasting economic outlooks for the two Asian economies.
According to the report, India's economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent annually in FY2027. China's growth, meanwhile, is projected to slow from 4.5 per cent in 2026 to 4.2 per cent in 2027 and further to 4 per cent in 2028.
"China's economy has been on a decelerating growth path for many years. We expect growth to moderate further, to 4.0% in 2028 from 4.5% in 2026," Moody's said.
This would widen India's growth lead over China from 2.5 percentage points in 2026 to 3 percentage points in 2028.
Highlighting India's economic strength, Moody's said, "Robust consumption, improving investment dynamics and strong macroeconomic fundamentals imply that the economy appears well positioned to sustain growth near 7% over the medium term."
The ratings agency also raised India's growth forecasts for 2026-27 to 7 per cent from its earlier projections of 6.5 per cent, citing resilience to the global energy price shock and improving investment conditions.
Moody's said a sustained increase in private investment could further strengthen India's manufacturing sector, employment and productivity, potentially pushing economic growth above its current projections.
In contrast, the agency expects China's economic slowdown to continue amid weak domestic demand, prolonged difficulties in its property sector and growing dependence on exports.
The report noted that China's retail sales grew just 1.1 per cent in September, while real estate investment declined 20.6 per cent during the first nine months of 2026.
"China's domestic demand weakness is entrenched and unlikely to reverse quickly without strong demand-focused stimulus," it added.
Moody's said China's exports, particularly technology products, automobiles and green energy equipment, continue to support growth, but weak consumer spending and the prolonged property sector downturn remain major challenges.
For India, the agency cautioned that rising inflation, higher interest rates and weaker agricultural output could pose near-term risks to growth, despite the country's stronger medium-term outlook.
— ANI
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