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India's GDP Growth Revised Up to 7.6% for FY26, Q4 Momentum Expected

India's GDP growth for FY26 has been revised upwards to 7.6%, with economists expecting further advancement in the fourth quarter. This growth is driven by remarkable double-digit expansion in the manufacturing sector and a strong performance in trade, hospitality, and tourism. Steady growth in private consumption and exports provides a solid foundation for the current fiscal year. Economists maintain a forecast of 7-7.5% growth for FY27, noting limited impact from the recent rebasing of the GDP series on fiscal ratios.

Key Points: India's FY26 GDP Growth Revised Up to 7.6%, Q4 Advance Seen

  • FY26 GDP revised up to 7.6%
  • Manufacturing sector expected to grow 11.5%
  • Trade & tourism sector growth at 10.1%
  • Strong exports and consumption demand
  • GVA grew 7.8% in Q3 FY26
2 min read

India's GDP growth expected to further advance in Q4 FY26: Economist

India's GDP growth for FY26 revised upwards to 7.6%. Manufacturing and tourism sectors show double-digit growth, supporting a positive outlook for FY27.

"we foresee the limited impact of the change in the new series, with no durable bearing on fiscal ratio. - Jahnavi Prabhakar"

New Delhi, Feb 28

India's growth is expected to advance in Q4 FY26 further as has been evident form the high frequency indicators, according to economists, as India's GDP growth has been revised upwards to 7.6 per cent form the previous estimate of 7.4 per cent for FY26, based on the old series.

Overall, "we foresee the limited impact of the change in the new series, with no durable bearing on fiscal ratio. With this, we continue with our forecast of 7-7.5 per cent growth for FY27," said Jahnavi Prabhakar, economist, Bank of Baroda.

The real GDP growth for FY26 looks achievable at 7.6 per cent and "is in line with our expectation," Prabhakar added.

This will be on the back of remarkable double-digit growth expected in the manufacturing sector (11.5 per cent from 9.3 per cent) which has expanded in the last three years.

Additionally, stupendous growth is expected in the trade, hospitality and tourism sector with 10.1 per cent growth in FY26 from 6.6 per cent in the previous year, said the report.

In nominal terms, strong growth in exports (9.6 per cent from 8.3 per cent) along with steady growth in PFCE at 8.9 per cent will hold ground for solid growth in FY26.

There has been reasonable traction in consumption demand amid the recent rationalisation of GST rates. A recovery in urban consumption bodes well for the growth outlook.

"Notably, some uncertainty pertains on the tariff front, especially in the US, given the recent changes. However, the new trade deals with other countries might offset any such negative impact," said the report.

GVA registered a growth of 7.8 per cent in Q3 FY26, up from Q3 FY25 (7.4 per cent) as per the new series. Among the sectors, major momentum was delivered by both services and manufacturing.

Within services, growth was broad based, with trade, hotels noting a growth of 11 per cent in Q3 FY26 versus 6.7 per cent in Q3 FY25.

"Given the rebasing of the GDP series, we do not expect much bearing on fiscal ratios," said the report.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
While the headline numbers look great, I hope this growth is inclusive. The report mentions urban consumption recovery, but what about rural demand? The benefits need to reach farmers and small towns too.
V
Vikram M
Double-digit growth in manufacturing and tourism? Wah! This is exactly what we need. More factories mean more employment. And tourism growth is great for our culture and local businesses. Acha hai!
P
Priya S
The numbers are promising, but as a common citizen, I'm more concerned about inflation. GDP growth is good, but if prices of essentials keep rising, the 'feel good' factor disappears. Hope the government keeps an eye on that.
R
Rohit P
Trade, hotels, transport at 11% growth! This shows our services sector is world-class. With new trade deals, we can become a global hub. The future looks bright for young professionals like me.
K
Karthik V
Respectfully, I'm always a bit skeptical when estimates are revised upwards. Let's see the actual ground data. The report itself mentions uncertainty from US tariffs. We should celebrate, but with cautious optimism.

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