NewKerala.com

India's FY26 GDP Growth May Top 7.4% After Base Year Revision: SBI

A State Bank of India report indicates India's GDP growth for FY26 could surpass the National Statistical Office's current estimate of 7.4% following a revision of the base year to 2022-23. The services sector is projected to be the primary growth driver with an estimated 9.1% expansion. Meanwhile, the industry sector is expected to see moderate growth, though mining activity may decelerate. The report notes that the second advance estimates, due in February 2026, are likely to reflect these changes after the base revision.

Key Points: India FY26 GDP Growth May Exceed 7.4% After Revision

  • FY26 GDP estimate at 7.4%
  • Growth may rise after base year revision
  • Services sector is key growth engine
  • Second advance estimates due Feb 2026
2 min read

India's FY26 GDP growth may exceed NSO estimate after base year revision: SBI report

SBI report suggests India's GDP growth for FY26 could be higher than the NSO's 7.4% estimate once the base year is revised to 2022-23.

"Growth is likely to be higher once the new base is released. - SBI Report"

New Delhi, January 8

The domestic GDP growth for FY26 is likely to be higher than the National Statistical Office's current estimate once the government releases the new base year, highlighted a report by State Bank of India.

According to the report, the first advance estimate (AE) released by the National Statistical Office pegs GDP growth at 7.4 per cent in FY26, compared to 6.5 per cent in FY25. Gross Value Added (GVA) growth is estimated at 7.3 per cent, while nominal GDP growth is projected at 8 per cent.

SBI believes that GDP growth for FY26 could be around 7.5 per cent with an upward bias, especially once the base year is revised to 2022-23.

The report added that the second advance estimates, which will incorporate additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026, and the numbers are expected to change following the base revision.

It stated, "Growth is likely to be higher once the new base is released."

The SBI report also noted that historically, the difference between GDP growth estimates of the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has generally remained in the range of 20-30 basis points. Hence, the 7.4 per cent growth estimate for FY26 is considered reasonable and expected.

It highlighted that the growth momentum is likely to reflect in per capita national income, which is expected to rise by Rs 16,025 annually to Rs 2,47,487 in FY26.

On the sectoral front, agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 3.1 per cent in FY26, compared to 4.6 per cent growth in the previous year.

The report stated that the services sector remains the key growth engine, with growth estimated at 9.1 per cent in FY26, higher than 7.2 per cent recorded last year. All sub-sectors within services are expected to grow at a faster pace compared to the previous year.

Meanwhile, supported by robust manufacturing growth of 7.0 per cent, the industry sector is expected to grow by 6.0 per cent in FY26, marginally higher than 5.9 per cent growth last year. Mining, however, is expected to decelerate by 0.7 per cent in FY26, compared to a growth of 2.7 per cent in FY25.

The report reiterated that upcoming revisions and the new base year could lead to further changes in these estimates.

- ANI

Share this article:

Reader Comments

P
Priya S
Good to see projections improving, but I'm a bit skeptical about these base year revisions. Sometimes it feels like number juggling. The real test is whether my father's small business sees more customers and my brother finds a better job.
R
Rohit P
The per capita income increase is the key figure for me. Rs 16,025 more annually might not sound like a lot in cities, but in my village, that extra money can make a real difference for a family's education and health expenses.
S
Sarah B
As someone working in the services sector (IT), the 9.1% growth projection is encouraging. However, the slowdown in agriculture growth from 4.6% to 3.1% is concerning. Balanced growth across all sectors is crucial for long-term stability.
V
Vikram M
Manufacturing at 7% is solid! 'Make in India' seems to be gaining traction. But the mining sector deceleration is a worry - we need those raw materials. Hope the government focuses on streamlining mining approvals without harming the environment.
K
Karthik V
Respectfully, while the headline numbers look good, I wish reports like these spent more time on the quality of growth. Is it creating secure, formal employment? Is it reducing inequality? GDP is one metric, but well-being is multi-dimensional.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Leave a Comment

Minimum 50 characters 0/50