Indian markets open lower as rising crude prices, geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment
New Delhi, August 12
Indian markets started the day in the red with the BSE SENSEX at 78,072.38 points, down by 81.87 points or 0.10 per cent, while the NSE NIFTY 50 was at 24,442.00 points, losing 29.70 points or 0.12 per cent.
The negative sentiment on domestic indices mirrored persistent global headwinds, including elevated geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.
Commenting on the market setup, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, stated, "The market is defying a breakout on the upside and is moving sideways. The principal factor restraining a rally is the strengthening Brent crude, which has again moved above the $89 level."
At the time of reporting, Brent Crude rose 1.01 per cent to USD 90.02 per barrel, Crude Oil gained USD 1.10 to stand at USD 84.30, while Gold stood at USD 4,403.84, up 0.77 per cent.He highlighted ongoing geopolitical friction as a key driver behind the pressure, noting that the off-and-on skirmishes continue, with Iran hardening its stance on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
"This might keep crude prices elevated, constraining a rally in the market. On the positive side, India's growth resilience is getting better. Latest report from the SBI projects the FY27 GDP growth at 8% against the RBI's 6.7 per cent. This optimism is based on the trends in most leading indicators," Vijayakumar added.
He noted that if these projections materialize, corporate earnings for FY27 could be significantly better than expected, providing a bullish backdrop alongside notable activity in mid- and small-cap stocks.
From a technical perspective, domestic equities continue to encounter overhead resistance following lower openings and consistent selling pressure at higher levels.
Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd, noted that gold prices traded higher, "Holding near $4,400 as investors weighed uncertainty over a potential US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz against rising oil prices and awaited US inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path."
At the time of reporting, US markets closed lower in overnight trade, with the Nasdaq slipping 0.60 per cent to 26,445.45 and the S&P 500 declining 0.32 per cent to 7,728.20.
Modi mentioned that diplomatic efforts appeared to be progressing, with Pakistan's defence minister saying, "US and Iran were close to an arrangement, while Oman-Iran discussions also continued; however, Iran maintained that reopening the waterway would require the US to lift its blockade and provide compensation for war-related damage."
"Markets are pricing roughly a 50-50 chance of a September rate hike, making today's CPI and PPI scheduled later this week particularly important for bullion. Meanwhile, strong Chinese demand continued to provide a fundamental tailwind, with the People's Bank of China adding around 640,000 troy ounces of gold in July, extending its buying streak to 21 consecutive months. Chinese gold-backed ETFs also continued attracting inflows," Modi added.
In Asian markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.53 per cent to reach 67,324.00, while South Korea's KOSPI surged 4.35 per cent to 6,633.97. Conversely, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.15 per cent to 25,360.00.
— ANI
Reader Comments
The Strait of Hormuz tension is affecting everything from petrol prices to gold at home. I hope the government is keeping an eye on inflation because common people are feeling the pinch at the petrol pump and grocery store. 😟
Gold at $4,400 and China adding 640k ounces in July - central banks are clearly hedging against geopolitical risk. With US-Iran talks ongoing but Iran demanding compensation, uncertainty will persist. Our market's minor dip is nothing; wait for the real impact once crude crosses $95.
The KOSPI jumping 4.35% while our market is flat shows how differently we're impacted. I just hope our policymakers have a solid plan for oil imports if Hormuz stays tense. We need domestic energy security more than ever. 🇮🇳
This is not the time to be aggressive in the market. The sideways movement with resistance at higher levels shows we're in a consolidation phase. For young investors like me, it's better to wait for a clear direction rather than trying to time every dip. The GDP projection is a positive but won't help short-term.
I've been investing through SIPs and this kind of volatility doesn't bother me much. However, I'm slightly concerned about the September rate hike chances being 50-50. If the Fed hikes, our rupee might weaken further, and FIIs could pull out. Let's see what CPI data shows later this week. 🤞
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