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Why India Remains Unfazed by Venezuela's Crisis: A Look at Trade and Energy Security

A report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) asserts that the recent US military action in Venezuela will have no material impact on India's economy or energy security. This is due to India's trade with Venezuela being small and already severely constrained by US sanctions since 2019, with crude oil imports plummeting by over 80%. The think tank suggests the US operation was fundamentally motivated by securing access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves, the largest in the world. Consequently, GTRI advises India to cautiously protect its strategic autonomy and secure critical resources without geopolitical pressure.

Key Points: India Unaffected by Venezuela Crisis, Says GTRI | Trade Analysis

  • India's Venezuela trade is minimal
  • Crude imports fell 81.3% due to sanctions
  • US action driven by access to oil reserves
  • GTRI urges India to protect strategic autonomy
3 min read

India unaffected by US action on Venezuela due to limited trade: GTRI

GTRI report explains why India's economy and energy security are insulated from the Venezuela crisis due to minimal trade and existing US sanctions.

"Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security. - Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI)"

New Delhi, January 4

The ongoing crisis in Venezuela is unlikely to have any material economic or energy impact for India, asserted India-based think tank Global Trade Research Initiative.

The GTRI, in a note, asserted that India was a major buyer of Venezuelan crude in the 2000s and 2010s. Indian firms such as ONGC Videsh held upstream stakes in the Orinoco belt. Bilateral engagement has weakened sharply since 2019 due to US sanctions, which forced India to cut oil imports and scale back commercial activity to avoid secondary sanctions.

As a result, India's trade with Venezuela is now small and declining, GTRI noted on Sunday, a day after US forces carried out a large military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US to face charges including alleged narco-terrorism and drug trafficking.

In 2024-25, India's total imports from Venezuela were just USD 364.5 million, of which crude oil accounted for USD 255.3 million, an 81.3 per cent drop from USD 1.4 billion in crude imports in 2023-24.

India's exports to Venezuela were modest, at USD 95.3 million, led by pharmaceuticals, valued at USD 41.4 million, according to GTRI.

"Given the low trade volumes, existing sanctions constraints, and the large geographical distance, the current developments in Venezuela are not expected to have any meaningful impact on India's economy or energy security," GTRI reiterated.

In this emerging global order, wars for raw materials and energy resources are likely to intensify in the coming years, GTRI opined.

GTRI suggested India must therefore act cautiously, protect its strategic autonomy, avoid deals that weaken sovereignty or long-term interests, and secure critical raw material and energy access without geopolitical pressure.

Securing control of Venezuelan crude oil was at the core of the US operation, according to GTRI. Venezuela holds about 18 per cent of the world's oil reserves, more than Saudi Arabia (around 16 per cent), Russia (about 5-6 per cent), or the United States (around 4 per cent). Venezuela alone has more crude oil reserves than the US and Russia combined.

"The United States has signed trade deals with partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, getting commitments from them to buy U.S. petroleum products and LNG, without having sufficient crude oil or refining capacity.

Against this backdrop, Venezuela, which holds the world's largest proven petroleum reserves, represents a critical source of upstream crude for the USA. Free access to Venezuelan oil was thus a central motivation for the US," the GTRI note read.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
The numbers are stark – an 81% drop in crude imports! While it's good we're not impacted, it's a bit worrying how much our trade was dictated by US sanctions. We need stronger, independent foreign trade policies.
R
Rohit P
So it was all about the oil reserves. Not surprised. The world runs on it. GTRI's point about future wars for resources is chilling but probably accurate. India needs to secure its own energy lanes without getting caught in these big power games.
S
Sarah B
Interesting read from an Indian perspective. The pharmaceutical export figure ($41.4 million) to Venezuela is a positive note. Even in small trade, our pharma industry finds a way. That's a sector with real global strength.
V
Vikram M
The report is pragmatic, but let's not be complacent. "Low trade volumes" today could be a missed opportunity tomorrow. Venezuela has massive reserves. Once the situation stabilizes, India should be ready to re-engage on favorable terms for our energy security.
K
Kavya N
A very clear and data-driven assessment. It cuts through the noise. The key takeaway for me is the last paragraph – India must avoid deals that weaken our sovereignty. Our foreign policy should always put India First.

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