India Must Use Economic Leverage in Bangladesh Strategy: Report

"The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has returned to power after decades, with strong electoral influence and numbers in the recently concluded Bangladesh elections, following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024. As India explores options for engaging with the new regime in Dhaka, it must pursue a broad set of engagements and clear priorities, given that New Delhi faces long standing fears and frictions dating back decades," a report in 'India Narrative' detailed.

According to the report, India must prioritise engagement with Dhaka on two fronts - strategic and security, while signalling that there is limited scope for recalibration.

"A strategically assertive posture in engaging with the new BNP leadership will work, as Sheikh Hasina's extradition issue will be a major strategic irritant that limits recalibration attempts. Therefore, India must proactively explore economic and political spheres or leverage points to, at best, contain Dhaka's adversarial manoeuvring and safeguard India's interests," it stated.

The arguments for recalibration and wait-and-watch approaches, the report said, have not produced any tangible outcomes in the past. Under the new BNP leadership, particularly Tarique Rahman at the helm, "hyper-autonomy and anti-India sentiments" are likely to undergo a "strategic buildup".

At the strategic level, the report emphasised that India should harness its long-term economic influence in Bangladesh, particularly in areas such as trade in essential commodities, electricity exports, and supply chain management.

"In current South Asian dynamics, India holds a strong position in the geo-economic domain vis-a-vis Bangladesh and must use this leverage if Bangladesh tries to go too far. India's negotiating style in leveraging this position should focus more on messaging than on direct action, using a transactional realism approach to signal to BNP that, without India or with anti-India sentiment, Bangladesh's autonomy is at risk. In other words, India must be in a position to impose caution, not compulsion, on Dhaka when needed," it mentioned.

The report stressed that on the security front, the resurgence of the radical Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami and its growing influence poses a genuine terror threat not only to India but also to Bangladesh itself.

"The JMB outfit may attempt to re-establish its presence. Against the backdrop of ISKP struggling to position itself in the South Asian subcontinent, JMB's strong connections with ISIS (often seen as an ISIS proxy in Bangladesh), and Pakistan's desperate attempts to cultivate strategic depth in Dhaka against India, the threat becomes even more real and dangerous. Therefore, India must make clear to Dhaka at the security level that security cooperation is non-negotiable, and even in this case, New Delhi must be able to exercise strong caution with Dhaka," it noted.

- IANS