India could return to over 7 pc growth by FY28 if global conditions stabilise: CEA Nageswaran
New Delhi, June 5
India could return to a growth rate of over 7 per cent by FY28 if macroeconomic stability is maintained and supply-side reforms continue, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday.
His statement comes at a time when global uncertainties continue to cloud the near-term economic outlook.
The remarks were made shortly after the Reserve Bank of India revised its GDP growth forecast for FY27 downward to 6.6 per cent, compared to 6.9 per cent projected in April.
The central bank cited rising energy and commodity prices along with ongoing supply disruptions linked to the conflict in West Asia as key risks affecting growth.
Addressing reporters in the national capital, Nageswaran said the government is not disputing the RBI's revised estimates, given the highly uncertain global environment. He noted that the current situation presents both upside and downside risks to the growth outlook.
"We have no reason to second-guess them (RBI forecast) at this point, because there are both possibilities on the upside and on the downside with respect to the numbers that they have presented," he said.
He added that India's growth momentum could strengthen once external pressures ease, particularly if global conditions stabilise in the coming years.
"The economy could return to a stronger growth path after temporary disruptions settle," he said.
"So, even if the growth were to slip below 7 per cent as the RBI forecast suggests... macro stability measures and supply assurances will bring us back to a 7 per cent plus growth track in FY28 or as soon as external conditions improve," Nageswaran added.
Nageswaran also said this recovery scenario depends on a reversal of geopolitical and economic disruptions that have emerged since late February.
He cautioned that the outlook remains conditional on how global developments unfold in the near term.
"Now, if these conditions continue, then we will revisit the estimate for the next financial year," he added.
— IANS
Reader Comments
The CEA is being realistic. With global instability, expecting 7% growth immediately is wishful thinking. But India's fundamentals are strong - our digital economy, manufacturing push, and young population will help us bounce back. Focus on supply-side reforms is key. 🇮🇳
FY28 is 3 years away! What about now? Middle class is struggling with fuel prices, school fees, and stagnant salaries. GDP projections are like a mirage for most Indians. The government should focus on rural economy and farmer incomes - that's where real growth happens.
Interesting perspective from an Indian economist. It's smart to hedge bets with the 'if global conditions stabilise' clause. The RBI's 6.6% forecast seems more realistic given the West Asia situation. But India's demographic dividend is real - you guys have a young workforce that many developed nations envy.
CEA Nageswaran is right - we can't control global disruptions but we can control our domestic policies. GST reforms, ease of doing business, and infrastructure spending are steps in right direction. But I worry about energy imports - if oil prices keep rising, all projections will go for a toss. 🛢️
Vaishvik arthavyastha asthir hai, lekin Bharat ki growth story strong hai. Government ko MSME sector, small businesses, aur export ko boost karne par focus karna chahiye. Supply-side reforms are necessary but demand-side challenges bhi hain - logon ki khareedari shakti badhani padegi. 🇮🇳
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