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India Could Slash $3B Oil Bill by Switching to Venezuelan Crude: SBI

A State Bank of India Research report projects India could reduce its annual crude oil import bill by up to $3 billion by shifting some sourcing from Russia to Venezuelan heavy crude. The savings would hinge on Venezuelan crude being offered at a discount of $10-12 per barrel to offset longer shipping distances and logistical costs. The analysis notes that Venezuela is roughly twice as far as Russia for shipping, adding to landed costs. The final strategy will depend on discount levels, logistics, and India's refinery capacity to process the heavier crude grade.

Key Points: India May Cut $3B Oil Import Bill with Venezuelan Crude

  • $3B annual savings possible
  • Needs $10-12/barrel discount
  • Longer shipping distances a factor
  • Refinery capacity for heavy crude key
3 min read

India could cut fuel import bill by USD 3 billion by switching to Venezuelan crude: SBI Report

SBI report says India could save $3 billion annually by shifting some crude imports from Russia to discounted Venezuelan heavy crude.

"India's fuel import bill could even decline by USD 3bn in the event of shifting to Venezuela - SBI Report"

New Delhi, February 4

India's crude oil import bill could decline by up to USD 3 billion annually if the country shifts a portion of its crude sourcing from Russia to Venezuelan heavy crude, according to a new report by State Bank of India Research.

The report highlighted that reducing reliance on Russian crude and increasing purchases of Venezuelan heavy crude could yield significant cost benefits, even after accounting for logistics and other factors.

It noted that a discount of USD 10-12 per barrel on Venezuelan crude would be sufficient to make the choice economically neutral for Indian importers.

SBI said "India's fuel import bill could even decline by USD 3bn in the event of shifting to Venezuela...discount of USD 10-12 could make the choice agnostic".

The report states this benefit would materialise if the Venezuelan crude were priced competitively enough to offset any additional transportation and handling costs.

At present, Venezuelan heavy crude is trading at about USD 51 per barrel, according to Oil Price data cited in the SBI report.

The analysis in the report also pointed out that the cost of shifting from Russian crude to Venezuelan heavy crude depends on several variables, including the level of discount vis-a-vis Brent crude, longer shipping distances, and time and insurance costs.

Venezuela is geographically farther, with shipping distances roughly five times those from the Middle East and about twice those from Russia for India, adding to the total landed cost of crude imports.

The report also emphasised the role of India's domestic refining capacity to process heavy crude and any technological costs that might be involved in blending different grades.

SBI research used a "brute force scenario" that preserved historical trends in India's import basket to model the impact of a full shift from Russian crude to Venezuelan crude, concluding that this could lower the annual fuel import bill by approximately USD 3 billion under favourable discount conditions.

However, the analysts caution that any easing of hostilities in Ukraine could reduce the current deep discount that Russian crude enjoys, potentially narrowing the economic advantage of Venezuelan barrels.

Still, they maintain that a discount in the range of USD 10-12 per barrel could make the switch between suppliers economically neutral or agnostic for Indian buyers.

The SBI report stated that the transition matrix for India's crude import mix will involve multiple combinations, reflecting varied scenarios where different proportions of Russian, Venezuelan, Middle Eastern and other crude grades are blended based on market conditions.

The analysis reinforces that while the shift to Venezuelan heavy crude could offer substantial savings, the final import strategy will likely be shaped by discount levels, logistical costs and refinery capabilities.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
$3 billion is a huge saving! That's money that can go into infrastructure or social schemes. But the report rightly points out the logistics cost. Twice the shipping distance from Russia means more time and fuel spent just to bring it here. Hope the discount is deep enough to cover that.
R
Rohit P
Good analysis, but I have a respectful criticism. These reports often assume static conditions. What if the Ukraine war ends and Russian discounts vanish? Or if Venezuela's political situation changes again? Our energy policy needs to be flexible and not lock us into another dependency.
M
Michael C
Interesting read. The key is the "agnostic" point at $10-12 discount. It gives Indian negotiators a clear benchmark. Our refiners in Jamnagar and elsewhere are world-class at processing heavy crude, so that's a plus. Hope the government explores this option seriously.
S
Shreya B
Ultimately, any saving on the import bill is welcome news for the common man. Petrol and diesel prices pinch every household budget. If sourcing from Venezuela can help keep prices in check, even slightly, it's worth pursuing. Jai Hind!
K
Karthik V
The report mentions the "brute force scenario" of a full shift. That seems unlikely. We'll probably see a blended approach – some from Russia, some from Venezuela, some from the Middle East. That's the safest way to balance cost, logistics, and energy security. Smart hedging.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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