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IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon in 2026, Raising Concerns for India

The India Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with seasonal rainfall estimated at 92% of the Long Period Average. The prediction cites a complex interplay of factors, including the potential development of El Nino conditions and a likely shift to positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions later in the season. Spatially, below-normal rainfall is expected over many parts of the country, though some regions may see normal to above-normal levels. The IMD will issue an updated forecast in May 2026 as part of its two-stage forecasting strategy.

Key Points: 2026 Monsoon Forecast: IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall

  • Forecast at 92% of Long Period Average
  • Higher probability of below-normal/deficient rain
  • Potential El Nino development during season
  • Likely shift to positive IOD conditions
  • Spatial distribution shows varied impact
2 min read

IMD forecasts below-normal southwest monsoon in 2026

IMD forecasts a below-normal 2026 southwest monsoon at 92% of LPA. El Nino development and snow cover trends cited as key influencing factors.

"The 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall... is most likely to be below normal, estimated at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average - India Meteorological Department"

New Delhi, April 13

The India Meteorological Department on Monday projected that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country is most likely to be below normal, estimated at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average, with a model error of +-5 per cent.

According to IMD, the LPA of seasonal rainfall for the period 1971-2020 stands at 87 cm. The forecast indicates a higher probability of rainfall falling in the "below normal" (90-95 per cent of LPA) and "deficient" (less than 90 per cent) categories.

The department stated that while weak La Nina-like conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific, atmospheric patterns still reflect residual La Nina characteristics. However, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the possible development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season.

IMD further noted that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail at present, with climate models indicating a likely shift towards positive IOD conditions in the latter part of the monsoon season.

On snow cover, IMD said that the Northern Hemisphere experienced slightly below-normal snow cover between January and March 2026. It added that reduced snow cover generally has an inverse relationship with monsoon rainfall over India.

The spatial distribution forecast suggests below-normal rainfall over many parts of the country, except some regions in Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

IMD stated that it will issue an updated forecast for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2026 as part of its two-stage long-range forecasting strategy.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
Living in Chennai, we know the pain of water scarcity all too well. Forecasts like this should be a wake-up call for every city to double down on rainwater harvesting and recycling. Conservation can't just be a monsoon-season activity.
P
Priya S
The science behind this is fascinating but the implications are serious. El Nino, IOD, snow cover... it's a complex puzzle. Kudos to IMD for long-range forecasting, but I hope the May update brings better news. Fingers crossed! 🤞
A
Aman W
While the forecast is concerning, let's not panic. 92% of LPA is still a significant amount of rain. The key is distribution. If some regions get normal rain as mentioned, proper national water sharing and storage policies can mitigate the impact.
K
Karthik V
Respectfully, IMD's forecasts have a margin of error and can change. We saw this last year. While we should be prepared, media should also avoid sensationalizing this and causing unnecessary anxiety among the public, especially in rural areas.
M
Michael C
The connection between Northern Hemisphere snow cover and our monsoon is something I never knew about. Climate patterns are truly global. This underscores why international cooperation on climate change is not optional for India.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

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